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Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Nobel Prize in Economics 2026

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Nobel Prize in Economics 2026

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Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?	Kalshi	12%
Will Susan Athey win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?	Kalshi	11%
Will Richard Blundell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?	Kalshi	11%
Will Ernst Fehr win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?	Kalshi	10%
Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?	Kalshi	10%
Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?	Kalshi	10%
Will Matthew Rabin win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?	Kalshi	9%
Will Robert Barro win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?	Kalshi	9%
Will Luigi Zingales win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?	Kalshi	5%

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About This Event

In 2026 If X has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nobel Prize in Economics 2026
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Susan Athey has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Susan Athey win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Robert Barro win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Richard Blundell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Matthew Rabin win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Luigi Zingales win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ernst Fehr win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Nobel Prize in Economics 2026

In 2026 If X has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.

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KALSHI

Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

If Partha Dasgupta has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Susan Athey win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Susan Athey win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

If Susan Athey has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Richard Blundell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Richard Blundell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

If Richard Blundell has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Ernst Fehr win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Ernst Fehr win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

If Ernst Fehr has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

If Ariel Pakes has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/3O6a-d" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Nobel Prize in Economics 2026"></iframe>

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Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Nobel Prize in Economics 2026

Markets (9)

Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Susan Athey win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Susan Athey win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Richard Blundell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Richard Blundell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Ernst Fehr win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Ernst Fehr win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

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Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Nobel Prize in Economics 2026

Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Partha Dasgupta win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Susan Athey win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Susan Athey win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Richard Blundell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Richard Blundell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Ernst Fehr win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Ernst Fehr win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

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