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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Republican win the House race for NC-1? | Kalshi | 73% |
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1? | Kalshi | 23% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If the House member sworn in for NC-1 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close following the swearing in of the Representative for the seat in question. This market will close following the swearing in of the Representative for the seat in question.
Prediction markets currently give Democrats a roughly 19 in 20 chance of winning California's 47th congressional district in the 2026 election. This is an extremely high level of confidence, suggesting traders see the race as nearly decided in the Democrats' favor over two years in advance. The market is resolving based on which party's candidate is sworn into the seat for the term starting in January 2027.
The high confidence stems from the district's recent political history and current representation. CA-47, an Orange County district covering coastal areas including Newport Beach and Laguna Beach, is currently represented by Democrat Katie Porter. While Porter narrowly won her initial elections, the district's voting patterns have shifted. In the 2022 election, even as Porter lost her U.S. Senate primary, the district voted for Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom by a significant margin.
This indicates a broader realignment in parts of Orange County, once a Republican stronghold, toward Democratic candidates in federal and statewide races. Traders are likely betting that this underlying trend, combined with the advantage of incumbency if a Democrat runs again in 2026, creates a very favorable landscape for the party.
The primary event that could shift these odds is the 2026 election cycle itself. Key moments will include the candidate filing deadlines in early 2026, the California primary election (likely in June 2026), and the general election in November 2026. A major shift could occur if a popular, well-funded Republican candidate emerges early, or if the incumbent Democrat decides not to seek re-election, creating an open seat. National political trends in the 2026 midterms will also influence this local race.
Prediction markets have a solid track record in forecasting U.S. House races, especially in districts with clear partisan leans. However, forecasts this far from an election come with greater uncertainty. The 94% probability reflects the current structural advantages for Democrats in this district. It is not a guarantee. Unforeseen events, scandals, or dramatic national political shifts over the next two years could change the calculus, but the market judges those possibilities as relatively low.
The prediction market on Kalshi prices a 94% probability that a Democrat will win California's 47th congressional district in the 2026 election. This price indicates near-certainty in the market's view. With only $3,000 in total trading volume, liquidity is thin, meaning this high-confidence level is based on a relatively small amount of capital. Such a lopsided price in a political market, especially one for an event over two years away, typically reflects a strong structural advantage for one party.
This district, covering coastal Orange County including Newport Beach and Huntington Beach, was significantly reshaped by California's 2022 redistricting. The new CA-47 is a Democratic-leaning seat. Incumbent Representative Katie Porter, a prominent Democrat, first won the old version of this district in 2018. While Porter is running for U.S. Senate in 2024, the district's underlying partisan makeup remains the primary driver of the market's extreme odds. President Biden won this district by 11 points in 2020. In a neutral or Democratic-leaning national environment, which the 2026 market currently assumes, the seat is considered a safe Democratic hold. The 94% price effectively dismisses the potential for a Republican upset under current conditions.
The 2026 election is distant, and this market will be sensitive to two major developments. First, the candidate field matters. The market assumes a competent Democratic nominee. A seriously flawed Democratic candidate or an exceptionally strong Republican recruit could narrow the gap, though the district's fundamentals make a full reversal unlikely. Second, and more significantly, the national political climate in 2026 will dictate the odds. If a Republican presidential victory in 2024 leads to a strong GOP tailwind in the 2026 midterms, the probability could drop from 94% into the 70-80% range. Conversely, a Democratic presidential win in 2024 would likely cement the current pricing. Major price movement will likely wait until late 2025, when candidate recruitment and the national environment become clearer.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Minnesota's 4th congressional district (MN-04). The market resolves based on which political party wins the seat for the term beginning in January 2027. MN-04 is a geographically compact district covering all of Ramsey County, including the state capital of Saint Paul and several surrounding suburbs. The district has been represented by Democrat Betty McCollum since 2001, making it one of the most consistently Democratic seats in the country. The market allows participants to speculate on whether this long-standing Democratic dominance will continue or if a political shift could occur. Interest in this market stems from its function as a barometer for Democratic strength in urban Minnesota and as a potential early indicator of broader national trends in the 2026 midterm elections, which will occur during what could be the second half of a presidential term. The district's demographic composition, with significant populations of college-educated voters, immigrants, and progressive activists, makes it a testing ground for Democratic messaging and organization. A Republican victory here would signal a dramatic realignment in Minnesota politics.
Minnesota's 4th congressional district has a deep history as a Democratic stronghold. The district's boundaries have changed over time but have consistently included Saint Paul since the 1930s. From 1949 to 1995, the district was represented by Democrat Joseph Karth and then by Democrat Bruce Vento. Vento served for 24 years until his death in 2000. The 2001 special election to succeed Vento was a pivotal event. Betty McCollum, then a state representative, won a competitive DFL primary and defeated Republican Linda Runbeck in the general election with 53% of the vote. Since that initial victory, McCollum has solidified Democratic control. The district was redistricted following the 2000, 2010, and 2020 censuses. The post-2020 redistricting, conducted by a state judicial panel, made minor adjustments but kept Saint Paul and its inner-ring suburbs intact, preserving its Democratic lean. The district's voting history shows remarkable consistency. In presidential elections, it has voted for the Democratic nominee by wide margins for decades, supporting Joe Biden by 64% in 2020. This history creates a high barrier for any Republican challenger, making a party flip a historically rare event that would require a significant political realignment.
The outcome of the MN-04 race matters because it is a key indicator of Democratic Party strength in a core urban-suburban district. A loss here for Democrats would suggest serious vulnerability in areas traditionally considered part of their electoral base. It could force a reassessment of policy and campaign strategies aimed at college-educated voters and communities of color, which are significant demographics in the district. For Republicans, winning MN-04 would represent a monumental breakthrough in Minnesota, a state where they have struggled in federal elections for the better part of two decades. It would provide a roadmap for how to compete in similar districts nationwide. The result also has direct consequences for representation. The district's representative influences federal spending through the Appropriations Committee, advocates for local projects like the Saint Paul RiverCentre, and shapes policy on issues from environmental protection to education funding. A change in party would shift the district's ideological alignment in Congress, potentially affecting legislative coalitions on close votes.
As of late 2024, Representative Betty McCollum has not publicly announced her intentions regarding the 2026 election. At 70 years old, speculation about potential retirement occasionally surfaces but she has given no indication of stepping down. The Republican Party has not yet identified a declared candidate for the 2026 race. The political environment will be shaped by the results of the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 state legislative session in Minnesota, which could pass laws affecting voter sentiment. The district's boundaries are set until after the 2030 census.
MN-04 includes all of Saint Paul, the state capital, as well as the inner-ring suburbs of Falcon Heights, Lauderdale, Little Canada, Maplewood, North Saint Paul, Roseville, Shoreview, and Vadnais Heights. It also contains parts of Arden Hills and White Bear Lake.
Yes, but not in the modern era. The last Republican to represent the geographic area now comprising MN-04 was Melvin Maas, who lost his seat in 1944. Since the district took its current Saint Paul-centric form in the 1960s, it has been continuously represented by Democrats.
The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for MN-04 is D+14. This means the district performed 14 points more Democratic than the national average in the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, classifying it as a Solid Democratic seat.
Potential candidates could include state legislators from the district like Senator Sandy Pappas or Representative Dave Pinto, Saint Paul Mayor Melvin Carter, or Ramsey County officials. An open seat would likely trigger a competitive DFL primary.
The market resolves to 'Yes' if the candidate from the specified party X is sworn in as the U.S. Representative for MN-04 in January 2027. It can be settled early if a consensus of major media organizations (e.g., AP, CNN, Fox News) projects that party's candidate as the winner.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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