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Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Name: Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?
End: 2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$272.61K

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Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

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Polymarket

markets · $272.61K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $272.61K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

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Market	Platform	Price
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?	Poly	100%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wins a majority of seats, at least 233, in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election aren't known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based solely on

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wins a majority of seats, at least 233, in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $272.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $130.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $272.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

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Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

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Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

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