This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 election for Texas's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate, as determined by official results and major media calls following the November 4, 2026, midterm elections. Texas's 3rd district, often abbreviated as TX-03, is a suburban district north of Dallas that includes parts of Collin County, such as Plano, McKinney, and Allen. The seat is currently held by Republican Keith Self, who was first elected in 2022. The district's political dynamics are shaped by its affluent, educated suburban electorate, which has shown signs of shifting away from reliably Republican voting patterns in recent national elections, making it a potential battleground. Interest in this market stems from its function as a barometer for suburban political trends in Texas, a key state for national political control. The outcome could signal whether Republican strength in Texas suburbs is rebounding or if Democratic inroads observed in the 2018 and 2020 cycles are persisting. Furthermore, the race will be a test of national political currents during a midterm election where the sitting president's party typically faces headwinds.

Historical Context

Texas's 3rd congressional district has existed in various forms since 1903, but its modern iteration was largely shaped by the 2003 Texas redistricting plan led by then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. For decades, the district was a Republican stronghold. From 1981 to 2003, it was represented by conservative Democrat Sam Johnson, who later switched to the Republican Party. Republican Sam Johnson then held the seat from 1991 until his retirement in 2019, often winning with over 60% of the vote. His successor, Van Taylor, continued this trend, winning by large margins in 2018 and 2020. However, the 2020 election showed early signs of change. While Van Taylor still won with 55.3% of the vote, it was a noticeable decline from his 2018 margin of 54.5 points, reflecting a national trend of suburban shifts toward Democrats during the Trump presidency. Taylor retired in 2022, and Keith Self won the open seat. The district's boundaries were slightly modified during the 2021 redistricting process but remained solidly Republican on paper, with the Cook Political Report rating it as R+14. Despite this rating, the district's demographic evolution and recent electoral tightening make its long-term partisan future a subject of analysis.

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