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Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

Aaron Judge Rookie Debut Jersey: Sale Price

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Aaron Judge Rookie Debut Jersey: Sale Price

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey \| 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?	Kalshi	89%
Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey \| 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?	Kalshi	71%
Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey \| 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?	Kalshi	60%
Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey \| 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $6000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?	Kalshi	47%
Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey \| 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $7000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?	Kalshi	31%
Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey \| 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $8000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?	Kalshi	21%
Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey \| 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $9000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above X during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot Sold” on the Sotheby’s website. If the value is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted to USD using the prevailing exchange rate. This market and these products

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Aaron Judge Rookie Debut Jersey: Sale Price
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT

If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above X during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot Sold” on the Sotheby’s website. If the value is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted to USD using the prevailing exchange rate. This market and these products 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above $9M during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed un"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $9000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $8000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $7000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $6000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

Aaron Judge Rookie Debut Jersey: Sale Price

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KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.0¢No 11.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above $3M during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed un

KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.0¢No 29.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above $4M during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed un

KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above $5M during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed un

KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $6000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $6000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above $6M during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed un

KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $7000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $7000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

If the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's is above $7M during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed un

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Average Yes Price

47¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/3XYHfS" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Aaron Judge Rookie Debut Jersey: Sale Price"></iframe>

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Aaron Judge Rookie Debut Jersey: Sale Price

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Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

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Events (1)

Aaron Judge Rookie Debut Jersey: Sale Price

Markets (7)

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $6000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $6000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $7000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $7000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Aaron Judge Rookie Debut Jersey: Sale Price

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $6000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $6000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $7000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

Will the lot sold price of the Aaron Judge ‘Rookie Debut’ New York Yankees 2016 Game Worn Jersey | 1st Career Home Run on Sotheby's be above $7000000 during the live auction beginning July 01, 2026 at 10:00 EDT?

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