How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting?
PM $124.1K · K 44.8K contracts
4
21
How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting?
PM $124.1K · K 44.8K contracts
4
21
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, 2 is priced at 33.5% on Polymarket and 35% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Same question, fine print differs | 33.5% | 35% | 1.5 pts |
| 3Same question, fine print differs | 26% | 27% | 1.0 pts |
| 0Same question, fine print differs | 24% | 22% | 2.0 pts |
| 1Same question, fine print differs | 17% | 14% | 3.0 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $124.1K · K 44.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
21
Saved contracts
4
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
October 2026 If there are exactly X dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting, scheduled for Oct 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks how many dissenting votes will be cast at the Fed meeting. The rules state: "If there are exactly X dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting, scheduled for Oct 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each market in this snapshot covers one count, from 0 to 5 dissents. The rules also include an early close condition: the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].
The wording differs across the listing. The event title refers to the "October Fed meeting," while the individual market titles refer to the "next Fed meeting" [1]. A reader should rely on the scheduled date in the rules, Oct 28, 2026, to identify which meeting the contract covers.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T19:56:23.720Z [1]. These are times for this saved snapshot. They are not a live reading, and the prices should not be treated as current.
All six markets for this event are included, and the sample is not flagged as partial [1]. The Yes prices, listed from highest to lowest, are: 2 dissents at 0.315, 0 dissents at 0.22, 3 dissents at 0.21, 1 dissent at 0.185, 4 dissents at 0.035, and 5 dissents at 0.015 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The ordering reflects how this saved sample was sorted, not a forecast ranking.
Across the six Yes prices, the total is 0.98 in this snapshot. Because the sample is complete for this event, this sum is a useful check on the set, but it does not establish the actual likelihood of any count.
Each market lists an end date of 2026-11-04T14:00:00.000Z [1]. That date falls after the scheduled Oct 28 meeting, but the source says the listed end time for the event is not supplied [1]. A listed close time is not a resolution, and the rules' early close condition could change when a market ends.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the actual number of dissenting votes, whether the early close condition will occur, or why prices stand where they do. It also does not show how many traders are involved or what the volume figure represents. Volume is not a measure of liquidity. Only one platform appears in the supplied evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
References
- Kalshi: How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting?. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event asking how many dissenting votes will be cast at the next scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October 2026. The contract rules say the next scheduled FOMC meeting is set for October 28, 2026 [1]. Each market in the event asks about a single count. Under the rules, a market resolves Yes if there are exactly X dissenting votes at that meeting [1]. The saved event lists separate markets for counts from 0 to 5 dissenting votes, so each one is a separate yes or no question about the same meeting [1]. The rules also include an early close condition. The market closes and expires early if the event occurs [1]. This means a contract may stop trading before the scheduled meeting date once the outcome it tracks has happened. The provider lists the event as active, but the supplied record does not include a listed end time for the event itself [1]. The saved market records show a provider end date of November 4, 2026 [1]. That date is a field in the provider's market data and is not an announced event date. The contract rules themselves refer to the October 28, 2026 meeting as the scheduled event [1]. Readers should rely on the contract rules for the event being tracked and treat the stored end date as a data field only.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific voting outcome at one scheduled policy meeting: the number of members who dissent from the decision. Because each Kalshi market in the saved sample tracks one exact count, traders can compare how the separate yes or no questions are priced relative to one another [1]. The price of each contract is a snapshot of trading activity at the time it was recorded, not an executable quote or a verified probability of that vote count [1]. Volume and the number of markets shown do not indicate how deep the market is or how many people trade it.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require in this contract?
The rules say the market resolves to Yes if there are exactly X dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting [1]. Each contract in the saved event uses a different value for X, so a Yes on one contract does not depend on the others [1].
When is the meeting this contract refers to?
The contract rules list the next scheduled FOMC meeting as taking place on October 28, 2026 [1]. The rules describe this as the scheduled date for the meeting, and the supplied evidence does not describe any other change to it [1].
Can this market close before the meeting date?
Yes. The rules include an early close condition under which the market closes and expires early if the event occurs [1]. The supplied record does not give a listed end time for the event, so the timing of any early close cannot be determined from this evidence [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
1
Same-question pairs
4
Largest saved gap: 3.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
