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Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?

Name: Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$23.34K

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Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?

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Polymarket

markets · $23.34K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.34K

100%

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1 market tracked

Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?	Poly	11%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 28, 2026 (44 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On September 18, 2025, Acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson announced that eight Minneapolis defendants were indicted for defrauding Minnesota’s housing stabilization program. It is rumored that some of these funds were used to fund the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab. You can read more about that here: https://www.city-journal.org/article/minnesota-welfare-fraud-somalia-al-shabaab?.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Minnesota defendants who were indicted for fraud in this 

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.4K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.54)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $23.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

43d 8h remaining

Feb 28, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/3gMC7N" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?"></iframe>

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Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?

Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?

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Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?

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Events (1)