Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Name: Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$371.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $371.01K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $371.01K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$371.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (166 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $371.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $34.9K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $371.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Next Market Closes

165d 16h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

9¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/3hr1_V" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)