$40.49K
2
15
$40.49K
2
15
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2026 If GDP growth in || year || is X Y or Z then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets currently give a roughly 1 in 4 chance that U.S. GDP growth in 2026 will land between 2.1% and 2.5%. This is the most likely single range among several options, but the low probability shows traders see a very uncertain picture. The collective forecast suggests the economy is more likely to grow either faster or slower than that narrow band. There is notable disagreement between major platforms, with their odds differing by about 4%, which is uncommon for a major economic indicator and points to a lack of consensus.
Two main factors explain the scattered forecasts. First, 2026 is far enough away that it sits beyond the horizon of most standard economic forecasts, which rarely project more than 18 months out. Traders are therefore weighing very long-term policy impacts and potential shocks. Second, the outcome will be heavily influenced by the 2024 election and the subsequent fiscal policies enacted in 2025. Markets are trying to price in vastly different budget and tax scenarios depending on who controls Congress and the White House. Historical context also plays a role: since 2000, annual GDP growth has fallen within this 2.1-2.5% range only three times, making it a historically uncommon outcome.
The single biggest event that will shape these odds is the U.S. presidential and congressional election in November 2024. The policy platforms that emerge in early 2025 will give markets their first concrete clues. Before that, watch for the Congressional Budget Office's updated 10-year budget and economic outlook, typically released in early 2025. That non-partisan report will provide a key baseline forecast. Monthly jobs and inflation reports throughout 2025 will then signal whether the economy is tracking toward a stronger or weaker growth path for the following year.
For long-term economic forecasts like this, prediction markets are a measure of informed sentiment rather than a precise forecast. They are good at aggregating diverse views on political outcomes, but economic growth two years out is influenced by unpredictable global events and data that does not yet exist. Markets for similar long-dated economic questions have often been volatile, with odds shifting significantly as the target year approaches and more data arrives. The current low probability and platform disagreement honestly reflect how difficult this is to call.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to U.S. GDP growth falling within a moderate range for 2026. The most traded contract on whether growth will be between 2.1% and 2.5% is priced at 27 cents, implying just a 27% chance. This suggests traders see it as the most likely single bracket among several options, but still view the outcome as highly uncertain. The next closest contracts are for growth above 3.1% (22%) and between 2.6% and 3.0% (21%). The wide dispersion of probabilities across seven growth brackets, combined with thin total volume of $40,000, indicates low trader conviction about the economic outlook that far in advance.
The low probability in the leading bracket reflects two primary economic views. First, the Congressional Budget Office's February 2024 long-term forecast projects potential GDP growth to average just 2.2% from 2027 onward, weighed down by slower labor force expansion. Markets are pricing 2026 growth near this subdued structural trend. Second, current pricing embeds skepticism that the economy can sustain its recent above-trend performance. Growth exceeded 3% for much of 2023 and early 2024, but traders expect a reversion to the mean as the effects of pandemic-era fiscal stimulus fade and monetary policy remains restrictive. The clustering of probabilities around the 2-3% range shows consensus for a soft landing scenario, not a boom or bust.
These odds will shift with new data on the two primary growth drivers: labor and productivity. The 2026 forecast hinges on whether the recent surge in labor force participation persists and if the productivity gains from AI adoption materialize at scale. Key catalysts include the Federal Reserve's policy path through 2025 and the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, which will shape the 2026 fiscal landscape. A recession in 2024 or 2025 would lower the 2026 baseline through carry-over effects, while a surge in immigration or a technology breakthrough could push probabilities toward higher growth brackets. Markets will react to each quarterly GDP report between now and 2026.
This event trades on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with a notable 3.5 percentage point spread. The leading "2.1-2.5%" contract trades at 27% on Polymarket but only 23.5% on Kalshi. This discrepancy likely stems from platform-specific user bases and liquidity constraints, not a fundamental disagreement. Polymarket's global, crypto-native traders may have a slightly more optimistic view of U.S. trend growth. The spread presents a nominal arbitrage opportunity, but thin liquidity and high platform friction make it difficult to exploit at scale. Prices should converge as the resolution date approaches and trading volume increases.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2026 refers to the projected annual percentage change in the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country's borders during that calendar year. It is the primary metric for measuring a nation's economic health and expansion. For prediction markets, the specific question typically involves whether the actual growth rate will fall within a predetermined range, such as above 2.0% or below 1.5%, based on final data from official statistical agencies like the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. These markets aggregate crowd-sourced forecasts about future economic performance, which often differ from official projections made by institutions like the International Monetary Fund or central banks. Interest in 2026 forecasts is high among investors, policymakers, and businesses because it influences long-term investment decisions, government budget planning, and monetary policy. The projections for 2026 are currently shaped by expectations about the resolution of persistent economic challenges from the early 2020s, including inflation trends, labor market conditions, and geopolitical stability. Analysts are particularly focused on whether growth will revert to pre-pandemic trends or settle into a new, potentially slower pattern.
U.S. GDP growth has averaged approximately 2.3% annually from 2000 through 2019, the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. This era was marked by the dot-com bust, the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, and a long but modest recovery. The crisis prompted a dramatic shift, with the Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark interest rate to near zero and engaging in large-scale asset purchases, policies that remained largely in place for over a decade. The pandemic caused an unprecedented contraction of 3.4% in 2020, followed by a rapid rebound of 5.9% in 2021 as fiscal stimulus surged and economies reopened. This volatility made historical comparisons difficult. The post-2021 period has been defined by high inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to initiate its most aggressive series of interest rate hikes since the 1980s, starting in March 2022. These actions are explicitly designed to slow economic growth to curb price increases. The historical precedent suggests that after such tightening cycles, the economy often enters a period of below-trend growth or recession, which directly informs cautious outlooks for 2025-2026. The Congressional Budget Office's long-term budget outlook from July 2024 projects potential GDP growth to average 1.8% from 2024 to 2034, lower than historical averages, due largely to slower labor force growth.
The GDP growth rate in 2026 will have tangible consequences for millions of Americans. A stronger-than-expected economy typically leads to lower unemployment, faster wage growth, and increased government tax revenues, which can reduce budget deficits or fund new programs. Conversely, growth significantly below potential can lead to job losses, stagnant incomes, and higher spending on social safety nets, increasing political pressure on elected officials. For financial markets, the growth outlook determines corporate earnings expectations and influences asset allocation decisions across stocks, bonds, and real estate. Persistent low growth can also exacerbate long-term challenges like funding Social Security and Medicare, as slower economic expansion provides a smaller base of taxable income to support an aging population. The performance of the U.S. economy in 2026 will also affect its global standing and geopolitical influence, particularly in relation to China, whose economy is projected to grow at a faster rate, albeit from a different development stage.
As of early 2025, economic forecasters are beginning to publish initial detailed projections for 2026. The consensus view, reflected in surveys like the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, points to growth moderating to around 2.0-2.2%, slightly above estimated potential. This outlook assumes the Federal Reserve will have successfully guided inflation back toward its 2% target without triggering a severe recession, allowing for modest rate cuts in 2025. However, significant uncertainty remains. Key variables include the trajectory of consumer spending post-exhaustion of pandemic-era savings, the durability of business investment, and the state of the global economy. The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the resulting composition of Congress will also shape fiscal policy in the years immediately preceding 2026, affecting tax and spending plans.
Forecasts for 2026 are produced using economic models that incorporate assumptions about population growth, productivity, investment, government policy, and global conditions. Institutions like the CBO use large-scale macroeconometric models, while private forecasters often blend model outputs with qualitative judgment.
Real GDP growth adjusts for inflation, showing the change in the actual volume of goods and services produced. Nominal GDP growth includes price changes. For measuring economic expansion, real GDP growth is the standard metric, as it isolates changes in physical output.
Forecasts differ due to varying assumptions about future fiscal policy, the path of interest rates, productivity gains, and unforeseen economic shocks. Organizations also use different economic models and may assign different probabilities to potential downside risks like financial crises or geopolitical events.
Stronger growth could result from a surge in productivity driven by rapid adoption of AI, larger-than-expected immigration boosting the labor force, a significant easing of global trade tensions, or more stimulative fiscal policy than currently anticipated.
A primary risk is that the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting efforts overshoot, causing a sharper economic downturn in 2024 or 2025 that extends into 2026. Other risks include a renewed energy price shock, a severe global recession, or a domestic financial crisis.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
14 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11% | 7% | 4% |
Different
Similar
2026 If GDP growth in || year || is X Y or Z then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, thi
If GDP growth in || year || is below 0.0 or below, then the market resolves to Yes.
No related news found
Polymarket
$10.82K
Kalshi
$29.66K
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/3jLO2g" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="GDP growth in 2026?"></iframe>