$737.40K
2
14
$737.40K
2
14
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Prediction markets currently price Representative Byron Donalds as the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination for Florida Governor in 2026. On Polymarket, shares for "Yes" on Donalds securing the nomination trade near 85 cents, implying an 85% probability. This high confidence level suggests the market views his nomination as very likely, though not a foregone conclusion. Across 14 related markets tracking various potential candidates, aggregate volume exceeds $737,000, indicating significant trader interest and moderate liquidity for a political event over two years away.
Three primary factors are solidifying Donalds's frontrunner status. First, his national profile has surged since his strong consideration as a potential Vice Presidential nominee in 2024, granting him unparalleled name recognition and donor networks within the party. Second, Florida's political landscape is dominated by the Republican Party, making the GOP primary the de facto election for the governorship. Donalds's alignment with the conservative base and endorsement from key figures like former President Trump provide a formidable advantage. Third, the lack of a declared heavyweight opponent creates a vacuum that markets believe Donalds is uniquely positioned to fill, as other potential candidates like Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis have not gained similar traction in betting markets.
The primary risk to the current pricing is the formal entry of a strong alternative candidate. If a figure like Senator Rick Scott, who has previously served as Governor, were to declare interest, the odds would shift dramatically. Scott has high name recognition, a substantial personal fortune for campaigning, and a proven statewide electoral record. The timing of official declarations, expected in late 2025, will be a major catalyst. Additionally, any unforeseen political scandal or a significant shift in Trump's public support before the primary filing deadline could destabilize Donalds's current position. The market's long time horizon until resolution in August 2026 leaves ample room for such volatility.
This event is active on both Polymarket and Kalshi. On Polymarket, Donalds's "Yes" shares consistently trade between 83-85 cents. On Kalshi, the equivalent contract trades at a very similar range, often between 82-84 cents. The minimal spread of 1-2 percentage points indicates efficient cross-platform arbitrage, with no significant pricing discrepancy. The high correlation suggests a strong consensus among informed traders on both platforms regarding the outcome. The slightly higher price on Polymarket may be attributed to its generally higher liquidity for U.S. political contracts, attracting more capital that reinforces the dominant narrative.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the selection of the Republican Party's nominee for Governor of Florida in the 2026 gubernatorial election. Florida's governorship is a powerful executive position with significant influence over state policy, budget, and political direction. The 2026 election will determine who succeeds Governor Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited after serving two consecutive four-year terms. The Republican primary is expected to be highly competitive, drawing interest from current and former statewide officeholders, members of Congress, and potentially figures from the private sector. The outcome will shape the future of the Republican Party in a key battleground state and could influence national political strategies. Interest in this market stems from Florida's status as the third most populous state, its role as a political bellwether, and the high-profile nature of its statewide elections. The market resolves to 'Yes' when a specific candidate, designated as 'X', officially secures the Republican nomination through the party's primary process, which is scheduled for August 2026.
Florida's gubernatorial elections have followed a distinct pattern in recent decades. The state operated as a true political battleground from 1998 through 2018, with control of the governor's mansion alternating between parties. Democrat Lawton Chiles was succeeded by Republican Jeb Bush in 1998, who served two terms. Republican Charlie Crist won in 2006 but later became an independent and then a Democrat. Republican Rick Scott won narrow victories in 2010 and 2014. The 2018 election marked a turning point, with Republican Ron DeSantis defeating Democrat Andrew Gillum by just 0.4 percentage points. DeSantis's 2022 re-election victory over Democrat Charlie Crist, however, was a landslide of nearly 20 points, signaling a dramatic rightward shift in the state's electorate. This history underscores how the 2026 primary will occur in a political environment that has become increasingly favorable to Republicans over the past decade. The Republican primary itself has often been decisive, as the party's nominee has gone on to win the general election in seven of the last eight gubernatorial contests. The last open-seat Republican primary for governor was in 2018, which featured a contentious battle between DeSantis and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, ultimately won by DeSantis with strong support from former President Donald Trump.
The selection of Florida's next governor has profound implications for over 22 million residents. The governor wields immense power over the state's $117 billion budget, appoints thousands of officials including judges and agency heads, and sets the policy agenda on critical issues like education, healthcare, environmental regulation, and economic development. The outcome will determine the direction of state laws on divisive cultural issues, such as abortion restrictions and LGBTQ+ rights, where Florida has recently been at the forefront of national conservative policymaking. Beyond state borders, the Florida governorship is a premier platform for national Republican politics. A successful governor can build a formidable fundraising network and command media attention, positioning themselves as a potential future presidential candidate. The race will also serve as a key test of the Republican Party's post-Trump coalition in a major state, influencing party strategy for the 2028 presidential election. The winner will oversee the redistricting process following the 2030 Census, shaping Florida's congressional and legislative maps for the next decade.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race is in its earliest, pre-candidacy phase. No major candidate has formally declared their intention to run for the Republican nomination. Potential contenders are engaged in behind-the-scenes fundraising, coalition building, and polling. The political landscape is influenced by the outcome of the 2024 presidential election and the future plans of Governor Ron DeSantis. Key party donors and influencers are beginning to assess the field. The formal qualifying period for candidates is not until June 2026, with the primary election scheduled for August 25, 2026. The current focus is on the 2024 election cycle, but strategic maneuvering for 2026 is quietly underway.
The Florida Republican primary election for governor is scheduled for August 25, 2026. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election between the top two finishers would be held later in the year.
Ron DeSantis is the current Governor of Florida, serving his second consecutive term which ends in January 2027. The Florida Constitution limits governors to two consecutive terms, so DeSantis is term-limited and cannot run for re-election in 2026.
The nominee is selected by Republican voters in a closed primary election. Only voters registered with the Republican Party are eligible to vote. The candidate who receives the most votes in the primary becomes the party's nominee for the general election.
Historically, key issues include immigration policy, tax cuts, education (including school choice and curriculum debates), law enforcement support, and environmental management. Cultural issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights have also become increasingly prominent in recent cycles.
No, a sitting or former First Lady of Florida has never been a major party nominee for governor. Casey DeSantis, if she runs, would be attempting to become the first.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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7 markets tracked
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
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| 85% | 78% | 7% |
| 14% | 15% | 1% |
| 2% | 7% | 4% |
| 0% | 2% | 1% |
| 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 0% | 1% | 0% |
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In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the fi
If Byron Donalds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Byron Donalds wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the fi
If James Fishback wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after James Fishback wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the fi
If Jay Collins wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Jay Collins wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the fi
If Casey DeSantis wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Casey DeSantis wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the fi
If Wilton Simpson wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Wilton Simpson wins the party's nomination.
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