Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?

Name: Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$49.98K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $49.98K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $49.98K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?	Poly	43%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$49.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Venezuela. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Venezuela or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. A

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Venezuela.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Venezuela or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

A

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Venezuela.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Venezuela or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ""

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $50.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.2K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $50.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

28d 7h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

43¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?

Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?

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Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)