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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

Name: # of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.45K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

Vol

$8.45K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.45K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	Poly	39%
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	Poly	28%
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	Poly	22%
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$8.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** # of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).

Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).

Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents lab"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.92)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech