Name: Claude Mythos released by…?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

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Claude Mythos released by…? | PredictPedia

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Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Poly	28%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	Poly	6%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Claude Mythos released by…?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (14 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Clau

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $231.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.9K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.55)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $192.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $38.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

13d 18h remaining

Apr 30, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

17¢

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Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

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Events (1)

Claude Mythos released by…?

Markets (2)

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?

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Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

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Claude Mythos released by…?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?

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