Name: "Avatar: Fire and Ash" total domestic gross by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

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"Avatar: Fire and Ash" total domestic gross by January 31? | PredictPedia

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5 markets tracked

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Poly	95%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?	Poly	5%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?	Poly	0%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?	Poly	0%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** "Avatar: Fire and Ash" total domestic gross by January 31?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to how much "Avatar: Fire and Ash" box office will gross domestically by January 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (December 19, 2025) and January 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this marke

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to how much "Avatar: Fire and Ash" box office will gross domestically by January 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.19M
* **Total Liquidity:** $264.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 19.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $1.73M
  DATA: [Yes: 95.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $1.07M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $905.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $767.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $719.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

15d 18h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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20¢

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"Avatar: Fire and Ash" total domestic gross by January 31?

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Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

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Events (1)

"Avatar: Fire and Ash" total domestic gross by January 31?

Markets (5)

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?

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Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

"Avatar: Fire and Ash" total domestic gross by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?

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