Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

Name: Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?
End: 2026-10-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$431.41

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

Vol

$431.41

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $431.41

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $431.41

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$431.41

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trum

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 31, 2026 (20 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trum

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $431
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $431
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics