
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on November 13?
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11
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on November 13?

PM $50
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 10°C at 43%.
Polymarket
- 10°C43%
- 12°C34.5%
- 9°C23.5%
- 11°C23%
- 13°C19.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
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Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature reported at Incheon Intl Airport (RKSI) on 13 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the lowest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Incheon Intl Airport (RKSI) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Incheon Intl Airport (RKSI) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=RKSI&format=raw&date=2026-11-13T18:00:00Z&hours=30
Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks which whole-degree Celsius range contains the lowest temperature reported at Incheon Intl Airport (RKSI) on 13 November 2026. Only routine METAR observations count. SPECI reports are excluded. The source says the hourly temperature remark is used when present, and otherwise the body temperature group governs in whole degrees [1]. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with exact halves rounded up, so 16.5°C counts as 17°C [1]. Wording matters for comparison: the market titles include "or higher" and "or below" brackets at the ends, while the middle brackets name a single value [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-13T12:00:00.000Z, and the source describes resolution occurring at the first METAR issued on the following day or by 11:59 PM ET that day, whichever comes first, with fallback sources described in the rules [1]. The listed end time is a provider field, not a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-12T10:26:24.005Z [1]. These are snapshot Yes prices, not executable quotes, and they may have changed since. The saved event includes all 11 markets, with no partial sample flag [1].
The highest Yes price in the snapshot is the 10°C bracket at 0.41, followed by 9°C at 0.35 and 14°C at 0.25. The 11°C and 8°C brackets are at 0.085 and 0.075, and the 5°C or below, 6°C, and 7°C brackets are each at 0.04 [1].
The Yes prices across these brackets sum to about 1.85, so they do not form a normalized distribution and should not be read as verified probabilities. Because this is one provider event on one platform, no cross-platform comparison is possible from this evidence.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why prices were at these levels, how many traders were active, or what the actual temperature will be. It also does not report any observations after the snapshot. Volume and price alone do not indicate liquidity. Differences between brackets reflect different outcomes, not an arbitrage opportunity. Readers should check the current contract page before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on November 13?. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks which whole-degree Celsius range will contain the lowest temperature reported at Incheon International Airport (RKSI) on November 13, 2026. The market is listed under the Polymarket event "Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on November 13?" [1]. The name refers to the Incheon airport station, not the central city of Seoul. Seoul is a separate city within the broader Seoul Metropolitan Area, which also includes Gyeonggi Province and Incheon [3]. Anyone reading the contract should keep that location in mind. The qualifying value is the lowest temperature in routine METAR observations for that station on the observation date. Special observations, marked SPECI, do not count [1]. The source describes an hourly temperature remark that reports tenths of a degree Celsius. When that remark is absent, a whole-degree temperature in the body of a routine observation can be used instead [1]. The qualifying value is then rounded to the nearest whole degree, with exact halves rounded up, and that whole number determines the range [1]. Observation time stamps are converted to the station's local time, including any daylight-saving shift, to decide which date an observation belongs to [1]. The source sets out a resolution sequence. The market resolves at the first METAR issued on the day after the observation date, or by 11:59 PM ET on that day, whichever comes first [1]. Corrections count if they appear in the resolution source before the cutoff, and the report shown for a given observation time is the one that counts [1]. If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine temperature observation for the date by the deadline, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table becomes the fallback source [1]. If neither source has enough data by the deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. If a source publishes clearly erroneous data from a technical or operational error, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days so a correction can be published [1]. The market snapshot was observed on November 12, 2026 at 09:00 UTC and retrieved shortly after [1]. At that time the listed status was active and the listed end time was 2026-11-13T12:00:00Z [1]. That end time is a field in the contract rules. It is not an announced event or a forecast of when the temperature will be known. At the snapshot, the Yes price for the 10 degree range was 0.41, the highest among the included ranges. The 9 degree range was 0.35 and the 14 degree range was 0.25. The 15 degrees or higher range was 0.215, and the 12 and 13 degree ranges were each 0.17. The 11 degree range was 0.085, the 8 degree range was 0.075, and the 5 degrees or below, 6 degree and 7 degree ranges were each 0.04 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They also do not show how much trading occurred or how many people took part. For background on the climate, the Seoul climate article describes a dry-winter humid continental classification and says that in winter, expanding Siberian High pressure zones and prevailing west winds bring colder air to Korea [2]. It also says the bitterly cold days commonly come in three-day cycles tied to rising and falling pressure systems [2]. That article is general climate background. It does not provide the forecast or observed temperature for November 13, 2026.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single number, the lowest temperature reported at Incheon airport on November 13, 2026, as defined by the routine observation rules [1]. Each market covers one whole-degree range, so the snapshot prices show how the market priced different ranges for that measurement at the time of observation [1]. Because the rules specify which report types count, how values are rounded, which time zone applies, and what fallback sources are used, the wording of the rules determines the outcome more than general descriptions of Seoul's weather [1][2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which station's temperature does this contract use?
The contract uses routine observations for Incheon International Airport (RKSI), not a general measurement for central Seoul [1][3].
Do special weather reports count?
No. The contract states that a report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count toward the lowest temperature [1].
How is a temperature rounded to a range?
The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, and an exact half is rounded up. That whole number determines which range contains it [1].
What happens if the main data source is missing values?
The Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used if the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine temperature observation for the date by the deadline. If neither source has sufficient data, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that a temperature will occur?
The snapshot prices are shown as Yes and No prices for each range at the observed time [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the contract rules do not describe them as probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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