$100.28K
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$100.28K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor wins the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture, otherwise it will resolve to "N
Prediction markets currently give Teyana Taylor roughly a 2 in 3 chance of winning the 2026 Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Supporting Actress. This means traders collectively see her as the clear favorite, but not a lock. The market has attracted over $100,000 in bets, showing serious interest, though traders on different platforms disagree slightly on the exact odds. We will know if they are correct when the awards are presented on March 1.
Teyana Taylor is the frontrunner primarily for her critically acclaimed performance in the film The Architect. Her role has already earned several major critics' circle awards, which often signal strength heading into the guild awards. The second reason is the specific nature of the SAG Awards. Unlike other ceremonies, these winners are chosen by actors themselves, Taylor's peers. A performance that resonates strongly within the acting community can sometimes win here even if it's an underdog elsewhere. The current odds suggest her performance has that kind of industry support.
The immediate signal will be the official nomination announcement on January 7. While Taylor is expected to be nominated, a surprise omission would immediately collapse her odds. After that, the major event is the SAG Awards ceremony on March 1. However, predictions could shift based on outcomes at other award shows held in January and February, particularly the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs. A loss at those events could weaken her perceived momentum before the SAG vote concludes.
Markets are historically decent at forecasting SAG Awards, often more accurate than Oscar predictions. This is because the voter pool (actors) is well-defined and its preferences can be gauged through industry buzz. However, the reliability has limits. These odds reflect current sentiment, which can change quickly with new information or a powerful campaign for another nominee. Also, with the ceremony about two months away, there is ample time for a different contender to gain momentum and shift the odds.
Prediction markets currently price Teyana Taylor's chance of winning the 2026 SAG Award for Best Supporting Actress at 65%. This probability indicates the market views her as the clear frontrunner, but her position is not a lock. A 35% chance of another nominee winning reflects significant uncertainty. The market has seen moderate liquidity, with over $100,000 in wagers placed across 17 related markets, suggesting informed trader participation rather than pure speculation.
Taylor's leading odds are primarily driven by critical reception for her performance in The Architect, a drama released in late 2025. Industry reporting from Variety notes her role is considered a career-defining turn in a prestige film, a typical profile for SAG Award winners. The SAG Awards are voted on by actors, and narratives about a respected performer receiving long-overdue recognition often resonate powerfully with this electorate. The current 65% price suggests traders are betting that this narrative, combined with strong reviews, will carry her to a win.
The major near-term catalyst is the official nomination announcement on January 7, 2026. While Taylor is considered a safe bet for a nomination, a surprise omission would immediately collapse her odds to zero. Assuming she is nominated, the odds will remain volatile based on precursor awards and guild events throughout January and February. A win at the Critics' Choice Awards or strong showing in industry polls could push her probability above 80%. Conversely, if another contender like veteran actress Viola Davis wins a key precursor, the market would likely shift, dropping Taylor's chances toward 50% or lower as the March 1 ceremony approaches.
A notable 6.5% price spread exists between platforms. Teyana Taylor's contract trades around 65¢ on Polymarket but near 71¢ on Kalshi. This discrepancy likely stems from platform-specific liquidity and trader demographics. Kalshi is a regulated US exchange, potentially attracting traders more familiar with traditional awards season patterns. Polymarket's global user base might be more skeptical or factoring in different information. This spread presents a textbook arbitrage opportunity. A trader could buy the "No" shares on Kalshi and the "Yes" shares on Polymarket to lock in a risk-free profit if the prices don't converge, though transaction costs and platform rules may limit this in practice.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the winner of the Best Supporting Actress award at the 32nd Screen Actors Guild Awards, officially called the Actor Awards. The specific contract resolves to 'Yes' if a designated performer, referred to as 'X', wins the award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role. The 32nd ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 1, 2026. Prediction markets on awards outcomes allow participants to trade shares based on their assessment of contenders' chances, synthesizing public opinion, critical buzz, and industry sentiment into a probabilistic forecast. Interest in this market stems from the award's high profile within the film industry and its reputation as a strong indicator of success at the Academy Awards. The SAG Awards are voted on exclusively by members of SAG-AFTRA, the actors' union, making the winner a direct reflection of peer recognition. Recent years have seen increased public engagement with awards prognostication through platforms like Gold Derby, and prediction markets offer a financialized extension of this activity. The market will close following the awards ceremony, or immediately after nominations are announced if X is not nominated, providing a clear expiration mechanism.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards were first presented in 1995 to honor outstanding performances in film and television. The award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role has been presented annually since that inaugural ceremony. Historically, the SAG Award winner in this category has a strong correlation with the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. From 1995 through 2025, the SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar 21 out of 30 times, a 70% alignment rate. This predictive power is often attributed to the significant voter overlap between SAG-AFTRA and the Academy's acting branch, the largest branch within the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Notable divergences include 2022, when Ariana DeBose won the SAG Award for 'West Side Story' and also won the Oscar, solidifying a sweep, and 2019, when Laura Dern won both awards for 'Marriage Story'. The ceremony itself has undergone changes, including a shift from a televised event on TNT and TBS to a Netflix streaming exclusive beginning with the 2024 awards, a move aimed at reaching a global audience.
Winning a Screen Actors Guild Award carries significant financial and career implications for an actress. The 'SAG Award winner' title can lead to higher salary demands, more prominent casting offers, and increased leverage in contract negotiations. For studios and distributors, a win validates marketing campaigns and can boost a film's box office performance or streaming viewership in the weeks following the ceremony, a period often called the 'awards bounce'. On a broader industry level, the awards season, culminating with the SAG Awards and Oscars, represents a major marketing cycle for adult-oriented dramas and prestige films, a genre that has struggled at the mainstream box office in the age of franchise filmmaking. The visibility provided by these awards helps sustain funding and theatrical releases for such projects. The outcomes also reflect and can influence cultural conversations about representation, as seen when awards recognition highlights performances from underrepresented groups or stories dealing with specific social issues.
As of late 2024, the field for the 2026 Actor Awards is entirely speculative, as the eligible film release window for the 32nd ceremony runs from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025. No official nominations or contenders exist. Industry observers are looking ahead to major studio releases and festival darlings scheduled for 2025 that could generate performances in the supporting actress category. Early speculation in trade publications often begins after the Cannes Film Festival in May and intensifies following the fall festivals in Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. The official nominations for the 32nd Actor Awards will be announced in January 2026.
A nominating committee, randomly selected from SAG-AFTRA's active membership, votes to determine the nominees. For film categories, this committee consists of 2,500 members. All active members of the union are then eligible to vote for the final winners in all categories.
No. In the history of the SAG Awards, every winner of the Female Actor in a Supporting Role award has also received an Academy Award nomination in the corresponding category. This perfect record underscores the award's prestige within the industry.
To be eligible, a film must have a scheduled theatrical release in Los Angeles or New York within the calendar year (January 1 to December 31, 2025, for the 2026 awards) and be shown for at least one week. Films that premiere on streaming services without a qualifying theatrical run are not eligible.
Beginning with the 2024 ceremony, the Actor Awards are streamed live globally on Netflix. This is a multi-year agreement, so the 2026 ceremony on March 1 will also be available exclusively on the Netflix platform.
The SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture is considered a strong Best Picture indicator at the Oscars. Since 1995, the SAG cast winner has matched the Oscar Best Picture winner 15 times, including recent matches like 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' and 'CODA'.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
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| 46% | 38% | 8% |
| 25% | 37% | 13% |
| 21% | 20% | 1% |
| 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 3% | 2% | 1% |
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In 2026 If X has won Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role at the 32nd Actor Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 32nd Actor Awards, formerly known as the SAG Awards, will take place on Sunday, March 1, 2026. This market will close and expire following the awards shows or the nominations if X is not nominated.
The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor wins the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture, otherwise it will resolve to "N
The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026. This m
If Jacob Elordi has won Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role at the 32nd Actor Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 32nd Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards) will take place on Sunday, March 1, 2026. Early close condition: This market will
The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026. This m
If Benicio del Toro has won Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role at the 32nd Actor Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 32nd Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards) will take place on Sunday, March 1, 2026. Early close condition: This market w
The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026. This m
If Sean Penn has won Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role at the 32nd Actor Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 32nd Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards) will take place on Sunday, March 1, 2026. Early close condition: This market will clo
The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026. This m
If Miles Caton has won Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role at the 32nd Actor Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 32nd Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards) will take place on Sunday, March 1, 2026. Early close condition: This market will c
The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026. This m
If Paul Mescal has won Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role at the 32nd Actor Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 32nd Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards) will take place on Sunday, March 1, 2026. Early close condition: This market will c
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