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$1.04K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Whistle If Whistle has a Tomatometer score of above X on Feb 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The "Fresh!" and "Certified Fresh!" subtitles are meant for illustrative purposes only. The Tomatometer score must be above the strike value to resolve as YES, for example, a score of 75 would resolve "Above 75" as No., The market will be determined the Monday after wide release at 10:00 AM ET.
Prediction markets on Kalshi are pricing in a 92% probability that the film "Whistle" will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score above 45. This price indicates an extremely high degree of market confidence, suggesting traders view a score above this low threshold as almost certain. With the market resolving on the Monday after the film's wide release in February 2026, this current pricing reflects a strong consensus nearly two years in advance.
The primary factor is the involvement of acclaimed director Ben Younger, known for films like "Boiler Room" and "Bleed for This." His track record suggests a baseline of critical competence that makes a score below 45 highly unlikely. Secondly, the film's reported budget and casting of major stars signal a studio-backed project with quality control measures that typically prevent outright critical disasters. Historically, only a small percentage of wide-release films from established directors fall below a 45% score, making this a statistically probable outcome.
The most significant risk to the current high-confidence odds would be negative early industry buzz following test screenings or festival premieres in late 2025. A poorly received trailer or reports of production troubles could shift sentiment. Furthermore, the specific critic consensus on the film's genre execution will be pivotal. If "Whistle" is marketed as a dramatic thriller but is perceived by reviewers as tonally confused or clichéd, it could defy the current expectation and fall into "Rotten" territory, despite the talent involved.
This market is trading exclusively on Kalshi, with a total volume of approximately $1,000 spread across eight related strike price markets. This indicates very thin liquidity, which is typical for long-dated entertainment markets. The lack of a comparable market on platforms like Polymarket means there is no observable arbitrage opportunity, and the 92% price should be interpreted with caution due to the low trading activity.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the anticipated critical reception of the upcoming film 'Whistle,' specifically its Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes. The market resolves based on whether the film's official Tomatometer score exceeds a predetermined threshold, known as the strike value, at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on Monday, February 9, 2026. This date is specified as the Monday following the film's wide theatrical release. The Tomatometer is a critical aggregation system that calculates the percentage of professional critic reviews deemed positive for a film. A score above the strike constitutes a 'Yes' resolution, while a score at or below it results in a 'No' resolution. For example, if the strike is 75, a score of 75 would resolve as 'No.' The illustrative 'Fresh' and 'Certified Fresh' labels are not part of the resolution criteria, only the numerical score matters. Prediction markets on film scores have grown in popularity as tools for forecasting industry performance and gauging pre-release buzz. Interest in this specific market stems from the film's production background, the involved talent, and the broader trend of using aggregated review scores as a key performance indicator for a film's commercial and artistic success. The outcome can influence perceptions, marketing strategies, and even box office performance in the crucial opening days.
The use of Rotten Tomatoes scores as a cultural and commercial benchmark dates back to the early 2000s. The site's influence grew substantially after its 2010 acquisition by Flixster and later by Fandango in 2016, integrating scores directly into ticket purchasing. Historically, a 'Fresh' rating (60% or above) has been correlated with stronger box office legs, while a 'Rotten' score can cripple a film's longevity. The 'Certified Fresh' designation, requiring a steady score of 75% or higher with a minimum number of reviews, has become a coveted marketing tool. Prediction markets on entertainment outcomes have a parallel history. Platforms like the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), founded in 1996, allowed virtual trading on box office results and awards. The emergence of real-money prediction markets in the 2010s and 2020s applied this concept to precise metrics like Tomatometer scores. Past markets on films like 'The Batman' (2022) or 'Dune: Part Two' (2024) have allowed traders to hedge opinions on critical reception against pre-release tracking and buzz. The resolution mechanism, using the Monday after wide release, is designed to allow the Tomatometer to stabilize after the initial flood of reviews from the Thursday/Friday embargo lift, providing a more definitive and less volatile data point for settlement.
Beyond the immediate trading activity, the market on 'Whistle's' Tomatometer score reflects the heightened economic importance of critical aggregation in the modern film industry. A high score can be leveraged in marketing campaigns, potentially boosting opening weekend box office returns and extending a film's theatrical lifespan. Conversely, a low score can necessitate a pivot in advertising strategy and impact ancillary revenue from streaming and home video. For the industry, these prediction markets can serve as a decentralized forecasting tool, aggregating crowd-sourced wisdom on a film's quality before any official reviews are published. This data could theoretically influence last-minute marketing budgets or release strategies. For critics and audiences, the market underscores the quantification of artistic reception, reducing nuanced criticism to a binary 'Fresh/Rotten' metric that holds significant sway. The outcome matters to studios, filmmakers, and investors as a very public, immediate report card that can affect careers, franchise futures, and financial performance.
As of the creation of this market, 'Whistle' is in pre-release development or production. No official reviews exist, and the Tomatometer page for the film is either inactive or displays no score. Trading is based entirely on pre-release indicators such as the talent involved, genre trends, studio track records, and early buzz from trailers or industry reports. The market will remain highly speculative until the critic review embargo lifts, typically just days before the film's wide theatrical release. At that point, the Tomatometer score will begin to populate in real-time, driving volatility as traders react to the initial critical consensus ahead of the final resolution on February 9, 2026.
The Tomatometer score is the percentage of approved critic reviews for a film that are positive, defined as a rating of 6/10 or higher. It is an aggregation tool, not a direct average of star ratings. A score of 60% or above is considered 'Fresh.'
Each critic from their approved publication list submits a review that is classified by Rotten Tomatoes staff as either Fresh (generally positive) or Rotten (generally negative). This binary classification is based on the overall sentiment of the review, not a specific score, though a rating equivalent to 6/10 or higher often qualifies as Fresh.
The market resolves to 'No.' The condition for a 'Yes' resolution is explicitly that the score must be above the strike value. A score equal to the strike, for example a score of 75 with a strike of 75, does not meet this condition and results in a 'No' outcome.
ET stands for Eastern Time in the United States. This includes Eastern Standard Time (EST) or Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), depending on the date. The resolution uses this specific time zone, and traders in other regions must adjust accordingly.
The market operator will use the official Tomatometer score displayed on the film's dedicated page on RottenTomatoes.com at the resolution time. Screenshots or archival data may be used to verify the score in case of disputes or later changes.
No. The market resolves solely on the numerical Tomatometer percentage being above the strike price. The 'Certified Fresh' subtitle or badge, which requires a score of 75% or higher and other criteria, is mentioned only for illustrative purposes and is not part of the resolution logic.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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8 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Whistle Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 45) | Kalshi | 92% |
Whistle Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 50) | Kalshi | 89% |
Whistle Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 55) | Kalshi | 79% |
Whistle Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 60) | Kalshi | 58% |
Whistle Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 65) | Kalshi | 47% |
Whistle Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 70) | Kalshi | 30% |
Whistle Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 75) | Kalshi | 16% |
Whistle Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 90) | Kalshi | 3% |
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