Bitcoin above ___ on May 1? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

Bitcoin above ___ on May 1?

Name: Bitcoin above ___ on May 1?
End: 2026-05-01T16:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$924.80K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Bitcoin above ___ on May 1?

Vol

$924.80K

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $924.80K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $924.80K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1?	Poly	100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 1?	Poly	100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1?	Poly	99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1?	Poly	93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1?	Poly	56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1?	Poly	9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?	Poly	1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1?	Poly	0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 1?	Poly	0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?	Poly	0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 1?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$924.80K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, May 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bitcoin above ___ on May 1?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 1, 2026 (0 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $927.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $339.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.73)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $87.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $73.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $153.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $112.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $45.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $69.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $97.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $17.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $101.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $63.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $103.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

42¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

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Bitcoin above ___ on May 1?

Bitcoin above ___ on May 1?

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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)