Ohio Republican Governor nominee? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Ohio Republican Governor nominee?

Name: Ohio Republican Governor nominee?
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$993.61K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $993.61K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

1.3%avg

max 1.4%

Arbitrage

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $993.61K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	97%	96%	1%
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	3%	4%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(5)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$993.61K

Volume

Markets

16.4%

Price Gap

About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Ohio Republican Governor nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Ohio, scheduled to take place on May 5, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Republican Primary t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $993.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $55.1K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 18.04)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (3 mkts) vs Kalshi (6 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $145.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.2% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.2% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $824.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.4% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Philip Funderburg be the Republican nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jim Tressell be the Republican nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Dave Yost be the Republican nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Heather Hill be the Republican nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Philip Funderburg win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $24.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

19d 9h remaining

May 05, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

Polymarket

50¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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