Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

Each market in this Polymarket event asks whether a named player will win the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award [1]. The event rules say the market "will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season" [1]. If the season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no winner is declared in that timeframe, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The stated resolution source is official Major League Baseball information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].

The listed end times differ. Some contracts show 2026-12-19T00:00:00.000Z, and others show 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These are listed close times in the evidence. They are not announced award dates, and the supplied material does not explain the difference.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed this event at 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-18T07:53:24.246Z [1]. These are snapshot times, not live quotes. Among the included contracts, the Yes price for Sal Stewart is 0.8435, and the Yes price for Carson Benge is 0.147 [1]. The other included players have Yes prices of 0.005 or lower [1]. These figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The sample is partial. The saved event has 24 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The included markets were selected by descending finite Yes price, then by volume [1]. The omitted markets are not shown to have lower prices. The sample simply does not display their prices. This ranking should not be combined with rankings from other events or providers.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show prices for the twelve omitted markets or for an "Other" outcome, so this snapshot does not show the full field. Prices may have changed after the observation time. The supplied material does not include trading volume or participant counts, so it cannot indicate liquidity or how many people agree with any price. It also does not explain any price movement. Because the contract wording and listed close times differ, a price gap between contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without checking those terms.

References

1. Polymarket: MLB: NL Rookie of the Year. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z.