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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-05 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Republican Party win the NY-05 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 election for New York's 5th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate, as determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by designated resolution sources. The election will be held on November 4, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. New York's 5th district is located in Queens and Nassau County, encompassing neighborhoods including Jamaica, Queens Village, and parts of Elmont and Valley Stream. The district's political dynamics are shaped by its diverse demographic makeup and its history of competitive elections. Interest in this market stems from its potential to serve as a bellwether for broader political trends in suburban New York and the national balance of power in the House. The outcome could indicate shifts in voter sentiment among key demographic groups, including Black, Hispanic, and Asian American communities that constitute significant portions of the electorate. The race will also test the strength of party organizations and the impact of national issues on a local congressional contest.
New York's 5th congressional district has undergone significant changes in recent years. From 2013 to 2023, the district was represented by Democrat Gregory Meeks as part of the 6th district, following redistricting. The current NY-05 configuration was established after the 2022 redistricting cycle and first contested in a February 2023 special election. That special election was necessitated by the expulsion of Republican George Santos from Congress on December 1, 2023, following a House Ethics Committee investigation that found substantial evidence of campaign finance violations. Santos had won the seat in November 2022 with 53.8% of the vote against Democrat Robert Zimmerman, flipping what was previously considered a safe Democratic district. The district's political history reflects the changing demographics of Queens and Nassau County. For decades, the area was represented by Democrats including Floyd Flake and Gregory Meeks, but Republican gains in the 2020 and 2022 elections demonstrated increasing competitiveness. The 2023 special election saw Democrat Gregory Meeks defeat Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip by a margin of 53.9% to 47.7%, returning the seat to Democratic control. This recent volatility makes the district a focal point for both parties in future elections.
The outcome of the NY-05 election will influence the balance of power in the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority. Each seat is critical for determining which party controls committee assignments, legislative agendas, and oversight authority. A Democratic victory would help the party defend or expand its position in the House, while a Republican win would contribute to maintaining or increasing their majority. The election also matters for representation of the district's diverse population. NY-05 is approximately 40% Black, 25% Hispanic, 20% Asian, and 15% white, with significant immigrant communities from the Caribbean, South Asia, and Latin America. The winning candidate will shape federal policy on issues including immigration, healthcare access, and economic development that directly affect these communities. Local implications include federal funding for infrastructure projects, support for public schools, and resources for small businesses that rely on congressional advocacy.
As of mid-2024, Democrat Gregory Meeks is the incumbent representative for NY-05 following his victory in the 2023 special election. Meeks has not formally announced his intentions for the 2026 election but is widely expected to seek reelection. No Republican challengers have officially declared candidacy, though party officials have indicated they plan to recruit a competitive candidate. The district boundaries remain unchanged from the 2022 redistricting cycle, and no legal challenges to the current map are pending that would affect the 2026 election. Both parties are beginning to assess potential candidates and build fundraising networks for what is expected to be a competitive race.
NY-05 includes parts of Queens and Nassau County. In Queens, it covers neighborhoods including Jamaica, Queens Village, Cambria Heights, Laurelton, Rosedale, and Springfield Gardens. In Nassau County, it includes Elmont, North Valley Stream, and parts of Valley Stream.
The general election will be held on November 4, 2026. Primary elections to select party nominees will occur earlier in 2026, with exact dates determined by New York State election law, typically in June.
The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate who wins the NY-05 House election. The winner's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources.
Republican George Santos represented NY-05 from January 2023 until his expulsion from Congress in December 2023. Santos won the seat in the November 2022 election but was expelled following a House Ethics Committee investigation.
In the February 2023 special election, Democrat Gregory Meeks defeated Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip with 53.9% of the vote to Pilip's 47.7%. This followed the expulsion of Republican George Santos, who had won the seat in November 2022.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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