$8.91K
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$8.91K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming EFL Championship game, scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026 between Hull City AFC and Queens Park Rangers FC.
Prediction markets give Hull City's home match against Queens Park Rangers a 73% chance of having over 1.5 total goals scored. In simpler terms, traders collectively believe there is roughly a 3 in 4 chance the game will finish with at least two goals. This shows a strong, but not certain, expectation for an attacking game.
Two main factors are likely driving this prediction. First, Hull City's recent matches have frequently been high-scoring. In their last five Championship games, four have seen over 1.5 goals, with Hull both scoring and conceding regularly. Second, while QPR has a poorer record, their matches often involve goals at both ends, especially away from home where they have struggled defensively. The historical context of this fixture also supports the forecast. The last four meetings between these two teams have all had two or more goals, including a 2-1 win for Hull earlier this season.
The key event is the match itself, which kicks off at 7:30 AM ET on February 21. The main signal to watch will be the team sheets announced roughly one hour before kickoff. Any significant last-minute injuries to key attacking players for either side, particularly Hull's top scorers, could shift expectations. The first 20-30 minutes of the match will also be telling. A cautious, defensive start might lower the probability of hitting the over, while an early goal would make the current market prediction look very accurate.
For football matches, prediction markets on totals like "Over/Under 1.5 goals" are generally quite reliable. They aggregate the knowledge of many fans and bettors who follow team form, injuries, and tactics. However, they are not perfect. A single red card, exceptional goalkeeping, or simply poor finishing can defy the odds. Markets for lower-profile leagues like the Championship can also be influenced by smaller amounts of money, making them slightly more volatile than predictions for major events like the World Cup.
The Polymarket contract for Hull City vs. Queens Park Rangers is pricing a 73% probability that the match will see over 1.5 total goals. This price indicates a strong consensus that at least two goals will be scored, though it is not a near-certainty. With only about $2,000 in total volume spread thinly across five related markets, liquidity is very low. This can make prices more volatile and less reliable as a predictive signal. The market is set to resolve imminently following the Championship fixture.
The high probability for over 1.5 goals reflects the attacking profiles of both teams and recent league patterns. Hull City, under manager Liam Rosenior, has developed a possession-based style that creates chances but can leave them exposed. Their matches have averaged 2.8 total goals this season. Queens Park Rangers, while less prolific, have been involved in higher-scoring games since the appointment of Martí Cifuentes, fighting to avoid relegation. The historical data for this specific fixture also supports the over. Three of the last five meetings between these clubs have finished with three or more total goals.
In a liquid market, the primary catalyst for odds movement would be team news, such as a key attacking player being ruled out or a defensive lineup change. However, with this market's resolution due immediately after the game kicks off, the odds are effectively locked. The thin trading volume means the final 73% price may not fully account for last-minute information that professional bettors use. For future similar markets, the announcement of starting lineups about one hour before kickoff typically causes the most significant pre-match price adjustments.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. No comparable contract exists on Kalshi for this specific Championship match, so no arbitrage opportunity or price comparison is possible. The isolation on one platform, combined with the low volume, means this 73% is the only available crowd-sourced probability for the over/under 1.5 goals bet. It should be viewed as a narrow sentiment gauge rather than a deeply traded forecast.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on an upcoming English Football League Championship match between Hull City AFC and Queens Park Rangers FC, scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026. The EFL Championship is the second tier of English professional football, and matches between these two clubs are part of the regular season schedule where teams compete for promotion to the Premier League or battle to avoid relegation. The outcome of this specific fixture will influence the league standings for both clubs during the 2025-2026 season. Prediction markets allow participants to wager on various aspects of the match, such as the final score, which team will win, or the total number of goals scored, based on analysis of team form, player availability, and historical performance. Interest in this match stems from the competitive nature of the Championship, where every point can significantly impact a team's season objectives. Both Hull City and Queens Park Rangers have experienced periods in the Premier League, making their encounters notable for fans and analysts tracking the progress of former top-flight clubs. The match is part of a 46-game season where consistency is challenging, and individual fixtures can become critical turning points. Bettors and football enthusiasts examine factors like recent results, injuries, tactical approaches, and managerial decisions to forecast the likely outcome. The prediction market aggregates these perspectives into tradable odds, reflecting collective wisdom about the probable result.
Hull City AFC, founded in 1904, and Queens Park Rangers FC, founded in 1886, have a shared history primarily in the second and third tiers of English football. Their first competitive meeting was in the old Second Division during the 1965-1966 season. A notable period in their rivalry occurred in the early 21st century when both clubs were frequently in Championship promotion contention. Hull City achieved Premier League promotion in 2008 and again in 2013, while QPR reached the top flight in 2011 and 2014. Their encounters have often been closely contested. In the 2023-2024 EFL Championship season, the two teams played to a 2-2 draw at Loftus Road in November 2023, with Hull City winning the return fixture 2-1 at the MKM Stadium in March 2024. The historical head-to-head record shows a relative balance, with neither side having sustained dominance over the other across decades. Past matches have sometimes carried significant weight, such as during the 2007-2008 season when both were in the promotion playoff race. This historical parity adds an element of unpredictability to their meetings, as form guides are often challenged by the specific dynamics of this fixture.
Beyond the immediate football result, this match has tangible economic implications for both clubs. Championship clubs operate under Financial Fair Play regulations, and the financial reward for securing promotion to the Premier League is immense, estimated to be worth at least £170 million over three seasons. Every point earned moves a club closer to that prize or further from the financial strain of relegation. For the local economies of Hull and West London, successful teams can boost local business, from matchday hospitality to merchandise sales. The social impact is also considerable. Football clubs are community pillars, and their performance affects local identity and morale. A positive season can unite a city, while a struggle can dominate local discourse. For players, strong performances in such matches can lead to transfers to larger clubs, international recognition, and career-defining moments. The match is a data point in the long-term projects of both clubs, influencing managerial job security, transfer market strategies, and fan engagement for the remainder of the season and beyond.
As of the latest available information leading to the 2025-2026 season, both clubs are preparing for the new campaign. The summer 2024 transfer window saw Hull City make several signings, including permanent deals for players like Ryan Giles and Philogene, aiming to build on their near-playoff finish. Queens Park Rangers focused on retaining key players like Chair while adding defensive reinforcements. The specific team news, injury reports, and final preparations for the February 2026 match will become clear closer to the date. The league standings in February 2026 will provide the most relevant context, indicating whether the match is a playoff six-pointer, a relegation scrap, or a mid-table encounter.
The match is scheduled to be played at Hull City's home ground, the MKM Stadium, in Kingston upon Hull. The stadium has a capacity of approximately 25,400 for football matches.
The exact kick-off time for Saturday, February 21, 2026, will be confirmed by the EFL and broadcasters closer to the date. Championship matches on Saturdays typically start at 3:00 PM local time (GMT), but some are moved for television coverage.
In the UK, the match will likely be available via the Sky Sports red button service or through an international streaming partner if not selected for main broadcast. Overseas viewers should check local broadcast rights for the EFL Championship.
Historical records point to players like Hull City's Chris Chilton from the 1960s and QPR's Rodney Marsh as significant contributors in past fixtures. For the modern era, specific head-to-head scoring records are maintained by statistical services like Opta.
In their most recent meeting during the 2023-2024 season, Hull City defeated Queens Park Rangers 2-1 at the MKM Stadium on March 16, 2024. The earlier fixture that season ended in a 2-2 draw at Loftus Road.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 41% |
| Poly | 31% |
| Poly | 28% |
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