Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Fuerza Popular winning the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election. With a price of 36% on Kalshi, the market implies roughly a one-in-three chance. This suggests traders view the outcome as possible but not the most likely scenario, reflecting significant uncertainty this far from the 2026 election. The market exhibits thin liquidity, with minimal trading volume, indicating these early odds are more speculative sentiment than a robust consensus.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The modest probability for Fuerza Popular, the right-wing party led by Keiko Fujimori, is shaped by two primary factors. First, the party retains a stable, conservative base and has historically been a dominant force in Congress, winning a plurality in the 2020 legislative election. This historical strength provides a floor for its odds. Second, current political fragmentation works in its favor. Peru's Congress is notoriously fractured, with numerous micro-parties. Fuerza Popular's established party machinery could allow it to outperform newer, less-organized movements in a crowded field, even with modest national support.

However, the probability is capped due to profound public distrust. Keiko Fujimori faces ongoing legal troubles and the party carries the baggage of Peru's intense political instability. The electorate's appetite for traditional parties remains low, limiting Fuerza Popular's ceiling.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds will be highly sensitive to the formation of pre-election coalitions and the emergence of new political movements, which typically crystallize closer to 2026. A key catalyst will be the 2024 presidential and congressional elections in neighboring countries like Mexico and the United States, which could shift regional political sentiment and influence Peruvian voter priorities. Domestically, the performance of the sitting government on the economy and public security will either bolster or undermine the appeal of established parties like Fuerza Popular. A decisive legal outcome for Keiko Fujimori would also cause immediate and significant odds movement, either solidifying or collapsing her party's viability.