GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?

Name: Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
End: 2026-09-24T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$39.25K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?

Vol

$39.25K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $39.25K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $39.25K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Poly	36%
Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Poly	21%
Will Jane Poole-Wilson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Poly	17%
Will Rob Callister be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Poly	5%
Will Lawrie Hooper be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Poly	5%
Will Alex Allinson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$39.25K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 24, 2026 (20 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chief Minister takes office 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.

To"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $39.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $46.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.84)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 24, 2026): Vol $19.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jane Poole-Wilson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 24, 2026): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Alex Allinson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 24, 2026): Vol $512
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 24, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rob Callister be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 24, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Lawrie Hooper be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 24, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics