Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of October?

Name: Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of October?
End: 2026-10-30T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.63K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of October?

Vol

$1.63K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.63K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.63K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of October?	Poly	93%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of October?	Poly	93%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of October?	Poly	90%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of October?	Poly	88%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of October?	Poly	81%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of October?	Poly	72%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of October?	Poly	59%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $540 end of October?	Poly	46%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $555 end of October?	Poly	32%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of October?	Poly	21%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of October?	Poly	14%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $615 end of October?	Poly	9%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $600 end of October?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

Top Probability

$1.63K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of October?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 30, 2026 (19 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing pric"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.26)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $443
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $540 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $555 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $600 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $615 end of October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance