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Event GroupKALSHIHealth

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

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What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

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7 markets tracked

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)	Kalshi	86%
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2500)	Kalshi	73%
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3000)	Kalshi	62%
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3500)	Kalshi	52%
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4000)	Kalshi	48%
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4500)	Kalshi	40%
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 5000)	Kalshi	32%

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About This Event

From 2025 to 2028 If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
**Category:** Health | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** From 2025 to 2028

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4500, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4500)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3500)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2500)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 5000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIHealth

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

From 2025 to 2028 If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes.

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KALSHI

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2000, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2500)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2500)

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2500, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3000)

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 3000, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3500)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3500)

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 3500, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4000)

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/4JKmUI" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?"></iframe>

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What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

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What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)

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Events (1)

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

Markets (7)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2500)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2500)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3500)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3500)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4000)

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What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2500)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2500)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3500)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 3500)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4000)

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 4000)

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