$70.24K
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$70.24K
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3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
From 2025 to 2028 If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets on Kalshi are pricing in a near-certainty that the United States will see a high incidence of measles during a potential second Trump term. The leading contract, which asks if the average annual number of measles cases from 2025 to 2028 will be at least 1,000, is trading at 98 cents. This implies a 98% probability, indicating traders view this outcome as virtually assured. For context, the CDC reported 58 U.S. measles cases in 2023, making this projected average of 1,000+ cases per year a dramatic increase.
Two primary factors are driving this extreme market consensus. First, historical precedent under the previous Trump administration saw a significant decline in childhood vaccination rates, influenced by rhetoric skeptical of public health mandates and vaccine safety. This established a policy framework that could be reinstated and intensified. Second, the recent surge in measles outbreaks in 2024, primarily among unvaccinated communities, demonstrates the virus's potential for rapid spread when population immunity wanes. Traders are betting that a combination of relaxed vaccination enforcement, sustained vaccine hesitancy, and the highly contagious nature of the measles virus will create a perfect storm for sustained, high-level transmission.
The current 98% probability leaves little room for error, but a few catalysts could theoretically lower the odds. A decisive, federally-led public health campaign in 2025 promoting MMR vaccination could bolster herd immunity and disrupt outbreak trajectories. Conversely, the odds could solidify further if early 2025 data shows cases tracking significantly above the 1,000-case threshold, confirming the market's dire forecast. The thin liquidity, with only $70,000 in volume across related markets, means this price is set by a relatively small number of participants and could be volatile if new information emerges.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting the average annual number of measles cases in the United States during a potential second presidential term for Donald Trump, spanning the years 2025 through 2028. Measles, a highly contagious viral disease declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000, has seen a resurgence in recent years, making its future incidence a significant public health indicator. The topic directly ties epidemiological outcomes to federal health policy, as the administration's stance on vaccination, public health funding, and pandemic preparedness could substantially influence disease transmission rates. Interest in this market stems from the intersection of politics and public health, with observers analyzing how potential policy shifts might affect vaccination coverage and, consequently, the vulnerability of populations to vaccine-preventable diseases. The resolution threshold, defined as the average annual cases reaching or exceeding a specific number X, creates a quantifiable measure for assessing the real-world impact of political leadership on health security. This market serves as a barometer for expert and public sentiment regarding the direction of U.S. infectious disease control under a specific governance framework.
Measles was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000, a milestone achieved through high population immunity via the two-dose MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine program. Elimination meant the absence of continuous disease transmission for over 12 months, not the absence of cases, which continued to be imported from other countries. This success began to reverse in the 2010s. A major outbreak occurred in 2014-2015, originating at Disneyland in California, with 147 cases, highlighting how vaccine hesitancy in clustered communities could compromise herd immunity. The largest modern outbreak was in 2019, with 1,274 confirmed cases across 31 states, primarily among unvaccinated populations in close-knit communities with low vaccination rates. This resurgence has been directly linked to declining MMR vaccination coverage. The national coverage for the MMR vaccine among kindergarteners has fallen from 95.2% in the 2019-2020 school year to 93.1% in the 2022-2023 school year, dipping below the 95% threshold considered necessary to sustain herd immunity and prevent outbreaks. This historical trend establishes a clear precedent: when vaccination coverage wanes, measles cases rise, often rapidly and explosively.
The number of measles cases is a direct indicator of the strength of the nation's public health infrastructure and social contract regarding immunization. High case numbers signal a breakdown in community protection, endangering infants too young to be vaccinated, immunocompromised individuals, and others for whom the vaccine is contraindicated. This can lead to severe complications, including pneumonia, encephalitis, and death. Economically, measles outbreaks impose significant costs on the healthcare system and society. A single case can trigger extensive and expensive public health responses, including contact tracing, quarantine measures, and emergency vaccination campaigns. For example, a 2019 outbreak in Washington state was estimated to have cost between $2.3 and $3.4 million in direct response costs alone. Furthermore, widespread outbreaks can disrupt schooling and parental workforce participation. Politically, rising case numbers become a flashpoint in debates over personal liberty versus public good, state versus federal authority in health policy, and the credibility of scientific institutions.
As of late 2024, the United States is experiencing a concerning uptick in measles cases, with multiple, simultaneous outbreaks across several states. Public health officials attribute this to a combination of factors: a continued decline in routine childhood vaccination rates, increased global travel importing the virus, and pockets of very low vaccine coverage in specific communities. The CDC and state health departments are actively managing these outbreaks, which strain local resources. The political landscape remains highly charged regarding public health authority, with debates over the permanence of pandemic-era policies influencing discourse on all vaccine-preventable diseases. Funding levels for core public health functions at the CDC and state levels are a subject of ongoing congressional appropriation debates.
The herd immunity threshold for measles is approximately 95%. This means at least 95% of a population must be immune, typically through vaccination, to prevent sustained transmission of the virus and protect those who cannot be vaccinated.
In 2023, the United States confirmed 58 cases of measles across 20 jurisdictions. This was an increase from 121 cases in 2022, but significantly lower than the 1,274 cases recorded during the major outbreak year of 2019.
For the 2022-2023 school year, states with some of the lowest reported MMR vaccination coverage for kindergarteners included Idaho (81.3%), Ohio (88.3%), and Georgia (89.6%). These rates are well below the national average and the herd immunity threshold.
The Trump administration launched Operation Warp Speed to accelerate COVID-19 vaccine development. However, President Trump also expressed skepticism about vaccine schedules, convened a controversial vaccine safety panel, and made public statements that some public health experts argued could fuel vaccine hesitancy.
The two-dose MMR vaccine is about 97% effective at preventing measles. While breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals are possible, they are rare, usually milder, and much less contagious. Vaccination remains the most effective protection.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 1000) | Kalshi | 98% |
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 2000) | Kalshi | 88% |
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? (At least 5000) | Kalshi | 34% |
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