Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a 60% probability that incumbent Representative Henry Cuellar will secure the Democratic nomination for Texas's 28th Congressional District in 2026. This price, trading exclusively on Kalshi with moderate confidence and approximately $7,000 in total volume, indicates the market views Cuellar as the clear favorite. However, a 60% chance suggests his renomination is seen as more likely than not, but far from a certainty, reflecting meaningful perceived risk in the primary process.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The primary factor supporting Cuellar's frontrunner status is the power of incumbency. As a long-serving representative first elected in 2005, he possesses significant name recognition, established donor networks, and a track record of bringing federal resources to the South Texas district. Furthermore, his centrist, business-friendly Democratic stance has historically aligned with the district's political leanings, making him a challenging target for a primary challenger from the left.

However, the probability is capped well below 80-90% due to persistent vulnerabilities. Cuellar is the last anti-abortion rights Democrat in the House, a position increasingly at odds with the national party base. He also faced a highly competitive primary in 2022, winning by just 289 votes against progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros. This demonstrated that a well-organized challenge from within his own party is a credible threat.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds will be most sensitive to the emergence and strength of a declared primary challenger. A repeat candidacy by Jessica Cisneros or a run by another progressive with substantial national backing would likely cause Cuellar's probability to drop significantly. Conversely, if the 2024 primary passes without a serious challenge or if Cuellar secures high-profile endorsements early in the cycle, his odds would solidify and likely rise.

External legal or ethical developments could also be a catalyst. While Cuellar was indicted on federal bribery and conspiracy charges in 2024, the market's current 60% price suggests traders are factoring in a scenario where the legal process extends beyond the primary or does not definitively disqualify him. Any major update in that case, such as a pre-trial dismissal or a guilty verdict, would cause immediate and dramatic repricing.