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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

What will Trump post this week? (April 27 - May 3)

Name: What will Trump post this week? (April 27 - May 3)
End: 2026-05-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.13K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will Trump post this week? (April 27 - May 3)

Vol

$3.13K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.13K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.13K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

23 markets tracked

Will Trump post "Blockade" on Truth Social this week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump post "Blockade" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	83%
Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	57%
Will Trump post "Midterm" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	56%
Will Trump post "Triumphal Arc" or "Triumphal Arch" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	47%
Will Trump post "Third rate" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	43%
Will Trump post "Prosecute" or "Prosecution" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	41%
Will Trump post "Landslide" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	40%
Will Trump post "Hoax" or "Scam" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	39%
Will Trump post "I love King" or "I love the King" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	38%
Will Trump post "Trust Trump" or "Trust in Trump" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	38%
Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	38%
Will Trump post "Ammo" or "Ammunition" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	37%
Will Trump post "Poll" or "Polling" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	36%
Will Trump post "Book" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	33%
Will Trump post "TrumpRX" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	30%
Will Trump post "UFO" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	27%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	27%
Will Trump post "Prince Harry" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	25%
Will Trump post "POTUS" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	23%
Will Trump post "Franklin Graham" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	21%
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	10%
Will Trump post "Free Tina Peters" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	7%
Will Trump post "Elon" or "Musk" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

Top Probability

$3.13K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualif

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Trump post this week? (April 27 - May 3)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.

Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualif

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths co"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $145
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump post "I love King" or "I love the King" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $117
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump post "Franklin Graham" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump post "Trust Trump" or "Trust in Trump" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $114
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump post "Prince Harry" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $32
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $129
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump post "Free Tina Peters" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $34
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $218
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump post "Midterm" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $76
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump post "Hoax" or "Scam" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $153
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Trump post "Ammo" or "Ammunition" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $136
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Trump post "Elon" or "Musk" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $191
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Trump post "Book" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $218
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Trump post "POTUS" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $31
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Trump post "TrumpRX" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $24
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Trump post "UFO" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Trump post "Third rate" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $92
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Trump post "Triumphal Arc" or "Triumphal Arch" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $72
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Trump post "Landslide" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Trump post "Prosecute" or "Prosecution" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $218
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Trump post "Blockade" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $152
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Trump post "Poll" or "Polling" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics