PredictPedia lists several prediction market contracts that ask whether the U.S. House of Representatives will impeach Donald Trump. The contracts share a core question but differ in wording, deadlines, and some resolution details, so the rules of each specific contract matter more than the headline. Kalshi's event titled "Will the House impeach Trump?" groups markets with different end dates, including several in 2027 and one ending January 1, 2028 [1]. A separate Kalshi event asks whether the President will be impeached before January 20, 2029 [3]. On Polymarket, one event asks whether Trump will be impeached by a set of dates in 2026 and 2027 [2], and another asks whether he will be impeached before his term ends [4]. Under the Kalshi rules, the market resolves to Yes if the House of Representatives has passed a bill impeaching the President after the contract's issuance and before the stated deadline [1][3]. The President must hold office when the impeachment resolution passes [1][3]. The Kalshi rules also state that the market will close and expire following the occurrence of the event [1][3]. Polymarket uses similar language but frames the trigger as the House approving or passing one or more articles of impeachment by simple majority vote [2][4]. The contract questions are narrower than the broader public debate about impeachment. Both platforms say that neither a trial nor a conviction by the Senate, nor removal from office, is needed for a Yes resolution [2][4]. Polymarket names the federal government as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting used where needed [2][4].

Historical Context

Talk of impeachment began before Trump took office, and various people and groups have asserted that he engaged in impeachable activity during both his first presidency and before it [5]. The grounds asserted have included possible violations of the Foreign Emoluments Clause through payments from foreign dignitaries, alleged collusion with Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign, alleged obstruction of justice related to that investigation, and accusations described as "Associating the Presidency with White Nationalism, Neo-Nazism and Hatred," which formed the basis of a resolution for impeachment brought on December 6, 2017 [5]. Trump was impeached a second time on January 13, 2021. The House adopted one article, incitement of insurrection, and the Senate voted on February 13, 2021 to acquit him on that article [6]. These are historical events. The sources do not establish what is happening with any current impeachment effort.

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