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Events
GroupKALSHI

10-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

10-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes
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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

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Reported volume · provider units

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Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Oct 19 - 2:00PM EDT to 2:15PM EDT If the close yield (%) of the 1-minute Pyth candlestick for 10-year U.S. Treasury ending at 2:15 PM EDT on Oct 19, 2026 is at least the opening target yield, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick for 10-year U.S. Treasury ending at 2:15 PM EDT on Oct 19, 2026. The 10-year U.S. Treasury refers to the US10Y, the current on-the-run benchmark of the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note as identified on the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 5 decimal places. Yields are expressed as annualized percentages. The opening target and settlement yield each use the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick immediately preceding their observation time. For a 4:45–5:00 PM EDT market, the opening target uses the candle timestamped 4:44 PM, ending at 4:45 PM; settlement uses the candle timestamped 4:59 PM, ending at 5:00 PM. Candlesticks are timestamped by their start time. If reliable Pyth data is unavailable, the contract’s no-data provisions apply.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiFinancials
2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

2-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

K 0 contracts
2-year U.S. Treasury yield up in next 15 mins?Yes 50%
1 mktNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
KalshiFinancials
30-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

30-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

K 0 contracts
30-year U.S. Treasury yield up in next 15 mins?Yes 50%
1 mktNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
KalshiFinancials
5-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

5-year U.S. Treasury Up or Down – 15 minutes

K 0 contracts
5-year U.S. Treasury yield up in next 15 mins?Yes 50%
1 mktNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
KalshiEconomics
How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

K 35.9K contracts
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% by Oct 30, 2026?Yes 20%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Oct 30, 2026?Yes 15.5%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?Yes 14.5%
+25 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiEconomy
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

PM $23.0K · K 7.7K contracts

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.09% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 66%Rules differK Yes 65.5%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 44%Rules differK Yes 43.5%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.00% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 36.5%Rules differK Yes 25%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiEconomics
10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

K 7.7K contracts
Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above -30bps?Yes 98%
Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above -20bps?Yes 97.5%
Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above -10bps?Yes 96%
+8 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Reviewed equivalent pairs

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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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