$243.28
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$243.28
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed a
Prediction markets currently price an 82% probability that the Democratic Party will win California's 13th congressional district seat in the 2026 House election. This high confidence level indicates the market views a Democratic victory as the overwhelming favorite outcome. The price of 82 cents on the "Yes" share suggests traders see only an 18% chance of an upset by a Republican or other party candidate. It is important to note this market on Polymarket shows very thin liquidity, with minimal trading volume, meaning these odds are more indicative of initial sentiment than a deeply tested consensus.
Two structural factors heavily favor the Democratic position. First, California's 13th District, covering parts of the San Joaquin Valley including Modesto, is currently represented by Democratic Congressman John Duarte. He narrowly won the seat in 2022 by a margin of just 564 votes, but the district's partisan lean, as measured by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, is D+4. This inherent Democratic tilt provides a baseline advantage. Second, the 2026 election is a midterm where the incumbent president's party typically faces significant headwinds. However, the market's high Democratic probability likely reflects a belief that the district's demographic fundamentals will outweigh any national anti-incumbent wave, especially if President Trump is in office seeking re-election.
The current pricing could shift dramatically based on candidate recruitment and the national political environment. If popular Republican former Representative David Valadao, who previously held a nearby seat, were to run in CA-13, it could immediately tighten the odds. Conversely, if Representative Duarte consolidates incumbency advantages and fundraising, the Democratic probability could rise further. Key dates to watch will be the candidate filing deadlines in early 2026 and the primary election on March 3, 2026. A poor Democratic primary performance or a damaging internal party split could undermine the high confidence. Additionally, a major shift in the national House battlefield, perhaps indicated by generic ballot polling through 2025, will serve as a leading indicator for this district's competitiveness.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on determining which political party will win California's 13th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate who ultimately wins this specific House race, as determined by the resolution sources when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. California's 13th district is located in the Central Valley, encompassing parts of Stanislaus and Merced counties, including the cities of Modesto, Turlock, and Ceres. This district has become a notable political battleground in recent election cycles, representing a shift in California's political landscape where traditionally Democratic urban centers meet more conservative agricultural regions. The 2026 race will occur without an incumbent, as current Representative John Duarte is serving his first term after a narrow victory in 2022. Political observers are closely watching this district as a bellwether for broader national trends, particularly regarding how both major parties perform in competitive suburban-rural hybrid districts. The outcome could signal whether Democratic gains in traditionally Republican areas during the Trump era have become permanent or whether Republicans can reclaim territory in California's interior. The race also holds significance for control of the House of Representatives, where even small shifts in competitive districts can determine which party holds the majority.
California's 13th congressional district has undergone significant transformation through redistricting processes. Following the 2010 census, the district was numbered as the 16th and represented by Democrat Jim Costa from 2013 to 2023. Costa won reelection comfortably during this period, typically by margins of 15-20 percentage points, as the district leaned Democratic. However, the 2020 redistricting cycle dramatically altered the district's composition through California's independent redistricting commission. The new maps implemented for the 2022 elections created a more competitive district that included more Republican-leaning areas of Stanislaus County while removing some Democratic strongholds in Fresno County. This redistricting transformed what had been a safe Democratic seat into one of the nation's most competitive congressional districts. The 2022 election between Republican John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray became the closest House race in the country, with Duarte ultimately prevailing by just 564 votes out of over 140,000 cast, a margin of approximately 0.4%. This narrow victory marked the first time a Republican had won the district since its creation in the 2013 redistricting. Historically, the Central Valley region has shown political independence, sometimes supporting Republican presidential candidates while electing Democratic representatives, creating complex political dynamics that make this district particularly unpredictable.
The outcome of California's 13th district race has significant implications for national politics and the balance of power in Congress. With control of the House of Representatives often determined by just a handful of competitive seats, races like CA-13 can literally determine which party sets the legislative agenda for the nation. A Democratic victory here could help the party regain majority control, while a Republican hold would protect their margin in what promises to be another closely divided House. Beyond congressional control, this race serves as a testing ground for political strategies in mixed urban-rural districts that are becoming increasingly common nationwide. The district's demographic composition, with significant Latino populations, agricultural workers, and suburban voters, represents a microcosm of national political coalitions. The campaign approaches that succeed here may be replicated in similar districts across the country. For California specifically, this race will indicate whether Democratic gains in traditionally Republican areas during the Trump era have become permanent or whether Republicans can mount a comeback in the state's interior regions. The outcome will also influence policy priorities for the Central Valley, particularly regarding water rights, agricultural subsidies, and immigration policy, which are vital to the region's economy.
As of late 2024, the race for California's 13th congressional district in 2026 remains in its early stages with no declared candidates. Incumbent Representative John Duarte has not officially announced whether he will seek reelection, though most political observers expect him to run again given his narrow 2022 victory and freshman status. Potential Democratic challengers are beginning to assess the race, with former Assemblymember Adam Gray considering another run after his close 2022 loss. Both national parties are monitoring the district closely, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee likely to target it as a pickup opportunity while the National Republican Congressional Committee prepares to defend what will likely be one of the most vulnerable Republican-held seats in the country. Fundraising efforts for the 2026 cycle are beginning to organize, though formal campaign committees have not yet been established.
California's 13th congressional district includes the cities of Modesto, Turlock, Ceres, and portions of Merced in the Central Valley. The district encompasses most of Stanislaus County and the northern part of Merced County, representing a mix of urban, suburban, and agricultural communities.
Republican John Duarte currently represents California's 13th congressional district. He was elected in November 2022 and began his term in January 2023, making him a freshman representative during the 118th Congress.
CA-13 is considered one of the most competitive congressional districts in the United States. The 2022 election was decided by just 564 votes, making it the closest House race in the nation that year. The district has a slight Democratic registration advantage but has shown willingness to elect candidates from both parties.
The 2026 election for California's 13th congressional district will take place on November 3, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. California's primary election will likely occur in March 2026, using a top-two primary system where the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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