$44.48K
1
6
$44.48K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by January 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other
Prediction markets currently assign a 70% probability that the new romantic drama "His & Hers" will be the top global Netflix show for the week ending January 19, 2026. This price, trading at 70¢ on Polymarket, indicates the market sees this outcome as the clear favorite. A 70% chance suggests a strong consensus that the show will debut at number one, but leaves meaningful room for an upset from a returning hit or surprise performer. The other five markets in the set, presumably for competing shows, share the remaining 30% probability, reflecting fragmented and low-confidence alternatives.
Two primary factors are driving the high confidence in "His & Hers." First, the show is a global premiere on January 16, perfectly positioning it to capture the full measurement week (January 13-19). Netflix's algorithm and homepage heavily promote new original releases, generating immediate, concentrated viewership that often dominates the weekly charts. Second, the show falls into the popular romance-drama genre, which has a consistent track record of high global appeal and bingeability on the platform. The thin $33K total market volume, however, indicates this is a speculative bet based on typical platform patterns rather than insider data.
The primary risk to "His & Hers" holding the top spot is the sustained strength of a carryover hit from the prior week. If a popular series like a returning season of "Stranger Things" or "The Witcher" was released in late 2025 and maintains strong viewership, it could outperform a new release. The market will be highly sensitive to any early social media trends or unofficial data leaks suggesting weaker-than-expected engagement for "His & Hers" over the weekend. All odds will solidify sharply upon the official data release on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on determining which television series will rank as the number one most-watched show globally on Netflix for a specific week in January 2026. The resolution is based on the official weekly Top 10 list published by Netflix on its public-facing website, top10.netflix.com. This list, updated every Tuesday at 3:00 PM Eastern Time, aggregates total viewership hours from the previous Monday through Sunday across all countries where Netflix operates. The market specifically tracks the English-language TV show category, which includes both originally English series and dubbed or subtitled non-English content that Netflix categorizes within this grouping. The outcome provides a real-time snapshot of global streaming trends and audience preferences, serving as a key performance indicator for the entertainment industry. Interest in this market stems from its reflection of cultural zeitgeist, the competitive dynamics between streaming platforms, and the significant financial implications for production studios and talent whose compensation is often tied to a show's performance on these charts. The market resolves to 'Other' only if Netflix fails to publish its weekly list by the specified deadline, a rare but contractual safeguard.
Netflix's public Top 10 website launched in November 2021, marking a significant shift toward transparency in an industry historically guarded about viewership data. Prior to this, third-party firms like Nielsen provided the only external glimpses into streaming popularity, and Netflix only selectively released data for promotional purposes. The weekly list was created to provide a consistent, standardized metric for success, calculated by dividing total hours viewed by a title's runtime. This methodology favors longer-running series and limited series with fewer total episodes, as they require fewer total views to accumulate high hour counts. Historically, the top spot has been held by a diverse range of content, from Korean sensation 'Squid Game' in 2021, which spent weeks at number one, to licensed phenomena like 'Suits' in 2023. The list has also shown the sustained power of franchise titles, with multiple seasons of 'Stranger Things' and 'Wednesday' achieving multi-week reigns. The data has become a crucial tool for industry analysts tracking the 'Netflix effect,' where a show's placement can lead to a measurable increase in social media buzz, merchandise sales, and talent recognition.
The number one position on Netflix's global Top 10 is a powerful economic and cultural signal. For Netflix, it validates content investment decisions, informs future greenlighting strategies, and serves as a marketing tool to attract and retain subscribers in a fiercely competitive streaming landscape. A top-ranking show can drive millions in incremental subscription revenue and strengthen Netflix's bargaining position with internet service providers and device manufacturers. For the broader entertainment ecosystem, a show's performance influences talent negotiations, with stars and producers increasingly commanding backend deals tied to streaming performance metrics. It also impacts related industries, from book sales for adapted series to tourism for filming locations. Culturally, the list acts as a global watercooler, shaping international conversations and highlighting cross-cultural appeal. A non-English language show reaching the top spot, as 'Squid Game' did, demonstrates the globalization of entertainment and can pave the way for increased investment and distribution of foreign-language content worldwide.
As of late 2024, Netflix's Top 10 list remains the industry's most watched weekly streaming metric. The platform continues to refine its methodology, having shifted from reporting 'views' (a two-minute qualified watch) to 'hours viewed' to provide a more stable metric. Competition for the top spot is increasingly fierce, with a mix of new Netflix Originals, new seasons of established franchises, and surprise hits from licensed catalog content. The performance of shows in the final weeks of December often provides momentum that carries into the January reporting period for this market, as viewers engage with holiday content and new releases timed for awards season consideration.
Netflix calculates a view by dividing the total hours viewed globally for a title by its total runtime. For example, if a 10-hour series is watched for 100 million hours, it records 10 million views. This methodology is applied uniformly to all shows for the weekly ranking.
Yes. Netflix categorizes shows primarily by language of audio track. A non-English series that is widely watched in its dubbed English audio version, or whose subtitled version is categorized by Netflix as an 'English TV' offering, can and has topped the English list, as demonstrated by 'Squid Game'.
Netflix has not publicly detailed a tie-breaking procedure. In practice, ties at the scale of millions of hours are statistically improbable. The company's published lists always show a distinct ranking, suggesting internal data provides further granularity to determine order.
Yes. Netflix's Top 10 data includes viewing from all accounts with access to the Netflix service during the measurement period, which includes standard subscribers, promotional free trials, and bundled access through telecom partners.
The duration varies widely. A massive hit like 'Squid Game' or a new season of 'Stranger Things' can hold the top spot for multiple weeks. A more modest hit or a licensed series might only lead for a single week before being displaced by new content.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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