How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries? | PredictPedia

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026

If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. Endorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page, https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/. X candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the tim

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Endorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 5
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. 3
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. 10
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. 1
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Average Yes Price

55¢

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How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

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