GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

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How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

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1 market tracked

Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 10 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 10 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?	Kalshi	39%

AI Analysis

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39%

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About This Event

in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026 If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 10, then the market resolves to Yes. Endorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026

If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 10, then the market resolves to Yes. Endorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 10, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Endorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candida"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 10 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections