Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Name: How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
End: 2027-01-04T17:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$163.89K

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How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Vol

$163.89K

Events

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markets · $163.89K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $163.89K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

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Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?	Poly	70%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Poly	29%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

70%

Top Probability

$163.89K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggr

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 4, 2027 (84 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggr

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized be"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $142.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.10)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $117.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $16.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $125
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $570
  DATA: [Yes: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Volume$163.89K

Markets6

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POLYMARKET

Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finali

POLYMARKET

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

POLYMARKET

Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?

POLYMARKET

Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?

POLYMARKET

Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?

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Next Market Deadline

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Jan 01, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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