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NL Cy Young Winner?
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2026 season If X wins the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The prediction market on Kalshi prices a 20% chance that Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes will win the National League Cy Young Award for the 2026 MLB season. This 1-in-5 probability indicates the market views him as a serious contender, but one facing significant competition and uncertainty two full seasons in advance. The price reflects his high-profile talent balanced against the inherent volatility of pitcher health and performance over such a long timeframe.
Skenes's 20% price is anchored by his historic rookie trajectory and underlying dominance. After being selected first overall in the 2023 draft, he reached the majors in 2024 and immediately demonstrated elite stuff, with a fastball averaging over 99 mph and a dominant whiff rate on his splinker. The market is pricing in the expectation that he will be a frontline ace by 2026. However, the odds are tempered by the reality that only one pitcher can win the award. Recent history shows favorites like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Jacob deGrom have won with a combination of sustained excellence and peak seasons, a bar Skenes has not yet cleared for a full campaign.
Two primary catalysts will move this market before the 2026 season. The first is Skenes's performance and health throughout the 2025 season. A 2025 campaign that places him in the top five of Cy Young voting would likely cause his 2026 odds to surge past 30%. Conversely, any significant injury or regression would collapse his price. The second factor is the competitive landscape. The emergence or decline of other elite NL pitchers like Spencer Strider, Zack Wheeler, or Logan Webb will directly impact Skenes's perceived chances. Major trades or free agent signings of ace pitchers into the National League before 2026 would also dilute his odds. The market will be most reactive to concrete 2025 performance data, making next season critical for price movement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on which pitcher will win the National League Cy Young Award for the 2026 Major League Baseball season. The Cy Young Award is presented annually to the best pitcher in each league, as voted on by members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. The 2026 award will recognize the pitcher deemed to have delivered the most outstanding performance during the regular season, based on statistics like earned run average, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched, as well as narrative factors like team success and historical context. Prediction markets allow participants to trade shares based on their assessment of the likelihood of specific outcomes, creating a real-time aggregation of collective intelligence about future events. Interest in this market stems from baseball's status as a major professional sport with a deeply analytical fanbase, the award's prestige in player legacies and contract negotiations, and the inherent uncertainty of projecting athletic performance years in advance. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if a specific, predetermined pitcher (denoted as 'X' in the market description) wins the award, and will close early if that event occurs.
The Cy Young Award was first presented in 1956, initially given to the single best pitcher in Major League Baseball. In 1967, the award was split into separate honors for the American League and National League. The voting process has evolved, but since 1970, two writers from each BBWAA chapter have cast ballots ranking their top five pitchers. Wins were historically the most valued statistic for voters, but the 'sabermetrics' revolution of the 2000s shifted emphasis toward metrics like ERA, strikeouts, and fielding-independent pitching (FIP). This shift is evident in winners like Jacob deGrom, who won the NL award in 2018 and 2019 with win totals of just 10 and 11, respectively, due to his historically low ERAs and high strikeout rates. The award has a notable impact on player valuation. For example, after winning the 2020 NL Cy Young, Trevor Bauer signed a three-year, $102 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The list of winners includes pitchers who dominated for a season, like R.A. Dickey in 2012, and those who defined eras, like Greg Maddux, who won four consecutive awards from 1992 to 1995.
The Cy Young Award has tangible financial consequences for players. Winning can trigger contract incentives, significantly increase a player's arbitration salary, and enhance their value in free agency, often adding millions of dollars to their career earnings. For teams, having a Cy Young winner is a marker of organizational success in player development or acquisition, and can boost ticket sales and local media interest. Beyond economics, the award is a central part of baseball's historical record and Hall of Fame consideration. Voters for the Hall of Fame heavily weigh Cy Young awards, with multiple winners like Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, and Randy Johnson achieving near-unanimous induction. For prediction markets, this topic matters as a test case for forecasting complex human performance. It blends quantifiable statistics with subjective voter tendencies, injuries, and team context, making it a challenging and engaging prediction problem that attracts both sports fans and data analysts.
The 2024 MLB season is underway, providing the first major data points that will inform 2026 projections. Early performances, injury reports, and velocity readings from established veterans and top prospects are being closely monitored. The 2025 season will serve as the most direct precursor, where contenders will solidify or diminish their standing. Player movement through free agency and trades, particularly any star pitchers changing leagues, will dramatically reshape the 2026 landscape. As of now, the field is wide open, with a mix of established aces like Strider and Webb, recent winners like Snell whose future is uncertain, and heralded prospects like Skenes who have yet to pitch a full major league season.
Two baseball writers from each chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) submit a ballot ranking their top five pitchers in the league. A point system is used (7 points for first place, 4 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth, 1 for fifth), and the pitcher with the highest total wins.
Yes, but it is rare. In the National League, relief pitchers have won four times: Mike Marshall (1974), Bruce Sutter (1979), Steve Bedrosian (1987), and Eric Gagne (2003). Starting pitchers have won the award in every other year since its inception.
Earned Run Average (ERA) and innings pitched are traditionally the most important. Strikeouts, Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) are also highly influential. The win-loss record was once paramount but now carries less weight than it did decades ago.
Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson are tied for the most NL Cy Young Awards, with four each. Maddux won four consecutively from 1992 to 1995 with the Atlanta Braves. Johnson won four times with the Arizona Diamondbacks (1999-2002) and once in the American League.
Yes, though it is uncommon. Steve Carlton famously won the NL award in 1972 for a Philadelphia Phillies team that finished 59-97. Felix Hernandez won the AL award in 2010 for the Seattle Mariners, who had a losing record. Team success helps but is not a strict requirement.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
44 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Paul Skenes win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 19% |
Will Shohei Ohtani win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 13% |
Will Cristopher Sanchez win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 13% |
Will Mason Miller win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 11% |
Will Edward Cabrera win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 10% |
Will Nolan McLean win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Sandy Alcantara win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will Jacob Misiorowski win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will Zack Wheeler win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 4% |
Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Brandon Woodruff win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Chase Burns win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Logan Webb win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Freddy Peralta win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Shota Imanaga win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Tie/Co-Winners win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Tyler Glasnow win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Spencer Strider win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Spencer Schwellenbach win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Sean Manaea win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Roki Sasaki win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Robbie Ray win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Quinn Priester win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Nick Pivetta win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Nick Lodolo win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Mitch Keller win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Merrill Kelly win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Matthew Boyd win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Kodai Senga win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Joe Musgrove win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Jesus Luzardo win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Jared Jones win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Jhoan Duran win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Hurston Waldrep win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Hunter Greene win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Eury Perez win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will David Peterson win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Cade Horton win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Blake Snell win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Brady Singer win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Bubba Chandler win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Aaron Nola win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Andrew Abbott win NL Cy Young? | Kalshi | 1% |
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