Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Montana Senate margin of victory

Total Volume

$2.33K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Montana Senate margin of victory

Vol

$2.33K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.33K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.33K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?	Kalshi	84%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 10 percentage points?	Kalshi	60%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?	Kalshi	43%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 15 percentage points?	Kalshi	25%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 20 percentage points?	Kalshi	7%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 25 percentage points?	Kalshi	3%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 35 percentage points?	Kalshi	3%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 30 percentage points?	Kalshi	3%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 40 percentage points?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

84%

Top Probability

$2.33K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Re

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Montana Senate margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republic"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $101
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 40 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 35 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 30 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 25 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 20 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 15 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 10 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Montana Senate margin of victory

Volume$2.33K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republica

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 10 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 10 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republic

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republic

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 15 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 15 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republic

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 20 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.6¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 20 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republic

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

26¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/4ayqGB" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Montana Senate margin of victory"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Montana Senate margin of victory

Montana Senate margin of victory

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Montana Senate margin of victory

Markets (9)

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 20 percentage points?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Montana Senate margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana Senate election be at least 20 percentage points?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget