$658.50K
1
11
$658.50K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on February 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s che
Prediction markets currently give Anthropic an 81% chance of having the second-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of February. This means traders see it as very likely, roughly a 4 in 5 probability. The market sees a clear gap between the expected top model, likely OpenAI's, and the runner-up position. The remaining 19% chance is spread among other AI labs like Google DeepMind, Meta, and xAI, suggesting traders see a small but real possibility for an upset.
The high confidence in Anthropic stems from its consistent performance. Its Claude 3 Opus model has held a top-three position on the Chatbot Arena for most of the past year. The Arena is a crowdsourced ranking where users vote on which AI gives better responses in blind tests, making it a respected benchmark for real-world usefulness.
Recent model releases also support this view. While OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo is the current leader, Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet made significant gains last summer. Other competitors, like Google's Gemini, have seen their rankings fluctuate more. The market is betting on stability, expecting Anthropic to maintain its strong position unless another company releases a major, unexpected upgrade in the next week.
The resolution date is the single key event: February 28, 2026, at 12 PM ET, when the leaderboard snapshot will be taken. Any official model release or major update before that date could shift the odds. For example, if Google or xAI were to announce and launch a new model like "Gemini 2.0" or "Grok 2" in the coming days, it could immediately challenge for a top spot. Traders will be watching AI company blogs and social media for any surprise announcements right up until the deadline.
Prediction markets have a solid track record for forecasting outcomes based on current, publicly known form, which this largely is. They effectively aggregate the collective judgment of informed participants about which model is currently "second best." However, their reliability can be tested by last-minute surprises. A sudden, unreleased model leapfrogging the field is the main risk. For a snapshot-in-time ranking like this, markets are generally accurate, but the week-long timeframe leaves a small window for volatility if the competitive landscape changes abruptly.
Prediction markets assign an 81% probability that Anthropic will have the second-best AI model by the end of February 2026. This price, trading at 81¢ on Polymarket, indicates an overwhelming consensus. The market sees this outcome as nearly certain, with only a 19% chance collectively assigned to all other competitors like OpenAI, Google, or a dark horse entrant. With over $621,000 in total volume, this market has attracted significant capital, lending weight to the current pricing.
The high confidence in Anthropic stems directly from its established performance trajectory. The Claude 3.5 Sonnet model has consistently held a top-tier position on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard for months, often trading the #2 rank with OpenAI's models. Historical leaderboard data shows a durable two-company race at the summit between Anthropic and OpenAI. This pattern makes the market skeptical of a sudden disruption from other labs by the February 2026 checkpoint. Furthermore, Anthropic's focused research on model safety and reasoning aligns with the Arena's crowd-sourced evaluation metrics, which tend to reward these qualities.
The primary risk to this consensus is an unexpected release from a competitor in the next seven days. Google's Gemini team or a well-funded startup like xAI could push a major model update before the February 28 resolution. The Chatbot Arena score is a live benchmark, and a last-minute surge in ratings could alter the ranking. However, the market's 81% price suggests traders believe such an event is unlikely. A more plausible shift would come from OpenAI. If GPT-4.5 or a similar model underperforms and falls below Anthropic, Claude could become the #1 model, invalidating the "second-best" condition and causing this market to resolve to "No." This subtle dependency on OpenAI's performance is the embedded volatility within an otherwise confident bet.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on identifying which company possesses the second-best publicly available large language model (LLM) at the end of February 2026, as measured by the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. The market resolves based on the 'Arena Score' published on the leaderboard's text evaluation page at a specific date and time. The Chatbot Arena, created by the Large Model Systems Organization (LMSYS Org), uses a crowdsourced, blind, randomized 'battle' system where users vote on which of two anonymized AI model responses they prefer. This Elo-style ranking system has become a widely cited benchmark for comparing conversational AI capabilities. The intense competition in the AI sector, particularly among tech giants and well-funded startups, makes the ranking a significant indicator of technological progress and market position. Investors, researchers, and industry observers track these leaderboards closely to gauge which companies are leading the race to develop advanced artificial intelligence. The focus on the second-place position acknowledges that while first place garners most attention, the runner-up spot is highly contested and often more volatile, reflecting a dynamic and rapidly evolving field.
The competitive benchmarking of AI models began accelerating with the release of OpenAI's GPT-3 in 2020, which demonstrated unprecedented few-shot learning capabilities. However, standardized, crowdsourced evaluation for conversational ability was lacking. The LMSYS Chatbot Arena launched in May 2023 to address this gap, providing a platform for direct, blind comparison. Its leaderboard quickly became a key reference point in the industry. In the first year, OpenAI's GPT-4 dominated the top spot. A significant shift occurred in March 2024 when Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus model reached a statistical tie with GPT-4 on the Arena leaderboard, ending a prolonged period of single-model dominance and proving the top rank was contestable. Throughout 2024, the rankings for positions two through five showed considerable volatility, with models from Google, Anthropic, and open-source contenders like Meta's Llama 3 70B frequently trading places. This historical volatility in the runner-up position, more so than the top spot, establishes the precedent for an active and uncertain market focused on identifying the second-best model.
The ranking of AI models has substantial economic implications. Companies with top-tier models gain significant competitive advantages in attracting developer ecosystems, securing enterprise contracts, and shaping industry standards. For investors, leaderboard performance is a proxy for a company's technical prowess and future revenue potential in the burgeoning AI-as-a-service market. A high ranking can directly influence stock valuations and investment flows. Beyond economics, these rankings influence the geopolitical AI race. National strategies in the United States, China, and the European Union often cite leadership in AI benchmarks as a goal. The models that perform best shape how millions of people interact with information and automation, affecting productivity, education, and creativity. The company in second place is often the most aggressive challenger, driving innovation through competition and preventing monopolistic control over a transformative technology.
As of late 2024, the Chatbot Arena leaderboard shows intense competition just below the top spot. OpenAI's models, including GPT-4 and GPT-4o, have consistently held first place. The positions for second, third, and fourth are frequently occupied by variations of Anthropic's Claude 3 models (Opus, Sonnet) and Google's Gemini models (Ultra, Pro), with their order fluctuating based on specific releases and updates. Meta's Llama 3 70B often leads the open-source category but typically ranks just outside this top proprietary group. All major players have announced ongoing development of next-generation models, with releases expected to continue altering the rankings through 2025 leading up to the market's resolution date.
The Chatbot Arena uses an Elo rating system, similar to chess. Two anonymized models generate responses to the same user prompt. The user votes for the better response. A win increases a model's Elo score, while a loss decreases it. The magnitude of change depends on the opponent's rating.
Unlike standardized test benchmarks (e.g., MMLU, HellaSwag), the Chatbot Arena measures subjective user preference in open-ended conversation. It evaluates how helpful and engaging a model seems in practice, rather than just its accuracy on specific tasks.
Yes, it is possible. While proprietary models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have dominated the very top ranks, open-source models have achieved high scores. Their ranking depends on the performance of future releases and any advancements made by the community in fine-tuning them.
The leaderboard updates continuously as new votes are cast. However, the official published leaderboard on the LMSYS website reflects a snapshot in time. For market resolution, the specific snapshot taken on February 28, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET will be used.
The primary Arena score for this market is based on the text leaderboard, which focuses on general conversation. LMSYS also maintains separate leaderboards for coding and other skills, but those scores are not used for resolving this particular prediction market.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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