This prediction market focuses on the early political maneuvering for the 2028 United States presidential election. It tracks whether specific individuals will officially announce their candidacy for president by December 31, 2026. An official announcement, defined as a public declaration of intent to run, is sufficient to trigger a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of subsequent filing of formal nomination paperwork. This early timeframe captures the 'invisible primary' phase, where potential candidates build fundraising networks, secure endorsements, and gauge support long before the first primary votes are cast. Interest in this market stems from its function as a collective intelligence tool, aggregating bets on political ambition and timing. It provides insight into which figures are perceived as serious contenders and how the political landscape is shaping up years in advance of the election. The outcome of the 2024 presidential election will heavily influence the field for 2028, determining whether an incumbent seeks re-election or an open contest emerges within both major parties.

Historical Context

The timing of presidential campaign announcements has evolved significantly. Historically, candidates would declare their intentions in the year preceding the election. However, the modern political era, influenced by fundraising demands and media cycles, has seen announcements creep earlier. In the 2016 cycle, Ted Cruz became the first major candidate to announce, doing so on March 23, 2015, over a year before the election. For the 2020 election, Elizabeth Warren announced an exploratory committee on December 31, 2018. The trend toward early announcements is driven by the need to secure major donors, hire staff, and build name recognition in a fragmented media environment. The December 31, 2026 cutoff for this market is historically early, falling nearly two years before the 2028 election. This reflects the accelerating 'permanent campaign' and the importance of the invisible primary, where establishment support is often locked up long before voters engage. Past candidates who announced early, like Cruz, have done so to position themselves as ideological standard-bearers and to gain a first-mover advantage in key states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

Frequently Asked Questions