Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026

Total Volume

$6.96K

Events

Markets

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Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026

Vol

$6.96K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $6.96K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.96K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?	Kalshi	96%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.0%?	Kalshi	94%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.2%?	Kalshi	78%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.4%?	Kalshi	61%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.6%?	Kalshi	30%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.8%?	Kalshi	25%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 6.0%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 6.2%?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$6.96K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Q3 2026 If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credit Data Bank for Auto Loans in the series “Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type.” Use the first value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for Q3 2026. Subsequent revisions will not affe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q3 2026

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credit Data Bank for Auto Loans in the series “Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type.” Use the first value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for Q3 2026. Subsequent revisions will not affe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 6.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 6.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 6.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $457
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $239
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $115
  DATA: [Yes: 78.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026

Volume$6.96K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 4.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.0%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.0¢No 22.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.2%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 5.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.4%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 5.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.0¢No 70.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.6%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 5.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

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Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026

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Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?

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Events (1)

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026

Markets (8)

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.0%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.0%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.2%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.2%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.4%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.4%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.6%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.6%?

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Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 4.8%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.0%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.0%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.2%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.2%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.4%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.4%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.6%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 be above 5.6%?

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