$169.27K
2
19
$169.27K
2
19
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
On Mar 22, 2026 If X wins the 2026 EFL Carabao Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared. This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The EFL Carabao Cup Winner prediction market focuses on forecasting which football club will win the 2025-2026 edition of the EFL Carabao Cup, a major annual knockout competition for English football clubs. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific, predetermined team (denoted as 'X' in the market description) lifts the trophy at Wembley Stadium on or around March 22, 2026. The market features an early close condition, meaning it will expire immediately after a champion is officially declared, rather than waiting for the final settlement date. This creates a dynamic trading environment where odds shift dramatically with each round of the tournament. The Carabao Cup, currently sponsored by the Thai energy drink brand Carabao, is open to all 92 clubs in the Premier League and the English Football League. It represents a prestigious domestic trophy and a direct route to European qualification, making it a fiercely contested secondary priority for top clubs and a primary target for others. Prediction markets on this outcome attract interest from football fans, sports bettors, and analytical traders who assess team strength, fixture congestion, and managerial priorities to predict cup success. The identity of 'Team X' is the central variable, and its journey through the competition will be closely tracked against the market's binary outcome.
The competition was founded in 1960 as the Football League Cup, conceived as a midweek revenue generator for clubs. It has undergone several sponsorship name changes, including the Milk Cup, Coca-Cola Cup, and Carling Cup, before becoming the Carabao Cup in 2017. The trophy has historically been a gateway to European football, with the winner qualifying for the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round. Liverpool holds the record for the most wins, with 10 titles as of 2024, including a victory in the 2024 final against Chelsea. The competition is notable for its two-legged semi-finals, a format unique among major English cup competitions, though this has been subject to periodic review and debate. Historically, it has been a tournament where emerging talents get first-team opportunities and where managers of top clubs balance ambition with squad rotation. The 2022 final saw Liverpool defeat Chelsea again in a penalty shootout after a 0-0 draw, a common outcome that highlights the fine margins in cup finals. The identity of 'Team X' in any prediction market is deeply contextualized by this history of dominant eras from certain clubs and occasional shocks from lower-division teams.
Beyond the sporting glory, winning the Carabao Cup carries significant financial and strategic importance. The champion receives a substantial prize money payout from the EFL's competition fund, estimated to be over £100,000 for the winner, with additional sums for progress through each round. More crucially, it provides qualification for European football, which brings in millions of pounds in UEFA solidarity payments and matchday revenue, a transformative sum for clubs outside the elite. For a manager, it can secure their position or mark the beginning of a successful era. For the players, it is a major honor that enhances legacies and market value. The competition also matters for the football pyramid, as revenue sharing from the competition and broadcast deals supports clubs in the lower leagues. A deep run by a League One or Two club can provide a financial windfall that sustains the club for seasons. The prediction market itself is a microcosm of broader sports analytics and betting industries, reflecting how data and public sentiment are quantified into tradable odds.
As of the creation of this prediction market for the 2025-2026 season, the tournament has not yet begun. The draw for the first round typically occurs in late June 2025, with matches starting in early August 2025. The identity of 'Team X' in the market is the critical unknown for traders. Participant interest will build through the summer of 2025 as club transfer activity shapes squad depth, and pre-season form offers early indicators. The market will become actively traded following the first-round draw, as the path to Wembley becomes clearer. All eyes will be on whether the dominant clubs of the early 2020s, like Manchester City and Liverpool, continue their strong cup form or if a new challenger emerges.
The EFL Carabao Cup final for the 2025-2026 season is scheduled to be played at Wembley Stadium on Sunday, March 22, 2026. This date is subject to confirmation by the EFL but follows the traditional late February or early March slot for the final.
The winning club receives the Carabao Cup trophy, a significant cash prize from the EFL, and, crucially, qualification for the following season's UEFA Europa Conference League. This European place is a major incentive for clubs.
Yes, all 20 Premier League clubs enter the EFL Carabao Cup. However, clubs involved in European competition in that season receive a bye and enter in the third round, while the remaining Premier League clubs enter in the second round.
This specific market resolves to 'Yes' if a pre-defined team, labeled 'X', wins the final. It features an early close condition, meaning it will settle immediately when a champion is officially crowned, even if that is before March 22, 2026.
Liverpool won the 2024 EFL Carabao Cup, defeating Chelsea 1-0 in extra time at Wembley Stadium. This was Liverpool's 10th victory in the competition, extending their record.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
15 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 50% | 4% |
| 47% | 46% | 1% |
| 5% | 7% | 2% |
| 2% | 2% | 1% |
Different
Similar
On Mar 22, 2026 If X wins the 2026 EFL Carabao Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared. This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup. If the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Carabao Cup, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the 2025–26 Carabao Cup is canceled or not completed by June 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other." The primary resolution source for this market will be official results published by the Carabao Cup / EFL Cup (https://www.efl.com/competitions/carabao-cup/).
If Man City wins the 2026 EFL Carabao Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup. If the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Carabao Cup, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the 2025–26 Carabao Cup is canceled or not completed by June 1, 202
If Arsenal wins the 2026 EFL Carabao Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup. If the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Carabao Cup, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the 2025–26 Carabao Cup is canceled or not completed by June 1, 202
If Chelsea wins the 2026 EFL Carabao Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup. If the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Carabao Cup, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the 2025–26 Carabao Cup is canceled or not completed by June 1, 202
No related news found
Polymarket
$146.73K
Kalshi
$22.54K
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/4maZXc" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="EFL Carabao Cup Winner"></iframe>