Maine Democratic Senate nominee? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Maine Democratic Senate nominee?

Name: Maine Democratic Senate nominee?
End: 2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.00M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.00M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.1%avg

max 0.5%

Arbitrage

of 7 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.00M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(7)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	99%	98%	0%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	1%	1%	1%
Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	0%	0%	0%
Will Dan Kleban be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	0%	0%	0%
Will Chellie Pingree be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	0%	0%	0%
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	0%	0%	0%
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	0%	0%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(2)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$3.00M

Volume

Markets

3.0%

Price Gap

About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Maine Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, May 30, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Maine Democratic Senate nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Maine Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine.

If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.00M
* **Total Liquidity:** $168.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 17.82)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (7 mkts) vs Kalshi (9 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $1.88M
  DATA: [Yes: 98.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $462.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Dan Kleban be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $81.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Chellie Pingree be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $91.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $206.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $167.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $107.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Andrea LaFlamme be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will David Costello be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

9d 8h remaining

Jun 09, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

14¢

Polymarket

14¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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