Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Name: Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
End: 2027-06-30T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$47.30K

Events

Markets

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Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Vol

$47.30K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $47.30K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $47.30K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	55%
Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	55%
Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	52%
Will the New Economic Party / The Reservists be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	52%
Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	49%
Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	46%
Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	44%
Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	41%
Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	37%
Will Together be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	36%
Will Amcha Yisrael be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	28%
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	19%
Will Blue and White be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	6%
Will the Joint List be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	4%
Will Noam be in the next Israeli government?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

55%

Top Probability

$47.30K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2027 (263 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolv"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $47.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $309.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $801
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Together be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $782
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Blue and White be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $419
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $870
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the New Economic Party / The Reservists be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $16.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the Joint List be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Noam be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Amcha Yisrael be in the next Israeli government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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