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US announces military support of Kurds by...? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

US announces military support of Kurds by...?

Name: US announces military support of Kurds by...?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

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$606.23K

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US announces military support of Kurds by...?

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Polymarket

markets · $606.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

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Volume DistributionTotal: $606.23K

100%

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1 market tracked

US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?

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Market	Platform	Price
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	Poly	4%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US announces military support of Kurds by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (14 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.

For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statement

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For an"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $114.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $24.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $114.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

13d 22h remaining

Apr 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/4zYGZK" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US announces military support of Kurds by...?"></iframe>

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US announces military support of Kurds by...?

US announces military support of Kurds by...?

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US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?

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Events (1)