Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

Name: Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
End: 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$35.69K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

Vol

$35.69K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $35.69K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $35.69K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Poly	40%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	18%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	16%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	11%
Will Shaul Meridor be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	8%
Will Israel Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	6%
Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	5%
Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	4%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	2%
Will Yaron Zelekha be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	1%
Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	1%
Will Hili Tropper be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	1%
Will Yair Golan be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	1%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	1%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$35.69K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Finance in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Finance will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying indiv

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2027 (141 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Finance in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.

To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Finance will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying indiv

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Finance in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.

To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $35.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $259.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.14)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Nir Barkat be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Shaul Meridor be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Yaron Zelekha be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $711
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $369
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $194
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $174
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Yair Golan be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $158
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Israel Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $219
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Hili Tropper be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $197
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $13.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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