Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?

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$1.78K

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Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?

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$1.78K

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

markets · $1.78K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $1.78K

100%

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6 markets tracked

Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?	Kalshi	23%
Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?	Kalshi	17%
Will No one become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?	Kalshi	11%
Will Lars Klingbeil become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?	Kalshi	11%
Will Baerbel Bas become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?	Kalshi	11%
Will Felix Banaszak become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

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23%

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$1.78K

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About This Event

Before Aug 26, 2029 If X becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the offic

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Aug 26, 2029

If X becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the offic

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If No one becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of governme"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will No one become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 26, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Lars Klingbeil become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 26, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 26, 2029): Vol $719
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Felix Banaszak become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 26, 2029): Vol $182
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Baerbel Bas become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 26, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 26, 2029): Vol $877
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?

Volume$1.78K

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

If Friedrich Merz becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of

KALSHI

Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

If Alice Weidel becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of go

KALSHI

Will No one become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will No one become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

If No one becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of governme

KALSHI

Will Lars Klingbeil become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lars Klingbeil become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

If Lars Klingbeil becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of

KALSHI

Will Baerbel Bas become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Baerbel Bas become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

If Baerbel Bas becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of gov

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/53Rhkf" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?"></iframe>

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Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?

Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?

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Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?

Markets (6)

Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will No one become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will No one become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Lars Klingbeil become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Lars Klingbeil become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Baerbel Bas become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Baerbel Bas become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

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Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?

Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will No one become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will No one become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Lars Klingbeil become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Lars Klingbeil become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Baerbel Bas become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

Will Baerbel Bas become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

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