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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-06 House seat? | Poly | 92% |
Will the Republican Party win the WA-06 House seat? | Poly | 8% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Washington's 6th congressional district. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the candidate who ultimately wins the seat in the November 4, 2026, midterm elections. Washington's 6th district covers the Olympic Peninsula and parts of the Puget Sound region, including Tacoma, Bremerton, and the state capital of Olympia. The district is currently represented by Democrat Derek Kilmer, who announced he would not seek re-election in 2024, creating an open seat for the first time since 2012. The 2026 race will be the first election for this seat without an incumbent in over a decade, making it a competitive target for both national parties. Interest in this market stems from its potential to serve as a bellwether for national political trends during the midterm elections of a presidential administration, as well as its status as a newly competitive district in a politically important state. The outcome could influence control of the House and signal voter sentiment in a politically mixed region of the Pacific Northwest.
Washington's 6th congressional district has existed since the 1960s, with its boundaries significantly reshaped by redistricting in 2012. For decades, the district was represented by Norm Dicks, a Democrat who served from 1977 to 2013 and was known for his focus on defense and environmental appropriations, reflecting the district's military bases and natural resources. Derek Kilmer succeeded Dicks in 2013, maintaining Democratic control. The district's political behavior has been mixed. While it has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in recent cycles, supporting Joe Biden by 13 points in 2020, it also has a history of electing moderate Republicans at the local and state level. The 2012 redistricting made the district slightly more Democratic, but it remains less solidly blue than other West Coast districts. The last time the seat was truly competitive was in 2010, when Dicks won by a relatively narrow 12-point margin during a strong Republican national wave. Kilmer's subsequent victories were by larger margins, averaging around 20 points, which insulated the district from serious competition until his retirement created new uncertainty.
The WA-06 election matters because it directly impacts the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. Every seat is critical in a closely divided chamber; the party that flips this district gains one vote toward achieving or maintaining a majority. This influences which party sets the legislative agenda, controls committee assignments, and can pass or block bills. For Washington state, the election determines representation for nearly 770,000 constituents on issues like military funding for local bases, environmental policy for the Puget Sound, and timber industry regulations. The race also serves as a political indicator. As a district that voted for Biden but could elect a Republican, its outcome may signal whether suburban and rural voters in the Pacific Northwest are shifting politically. A Republican win could suggest broader vulnerability for Democrats in similar districts across the country. The campaign will test messages on the economy, national defense, and climate policy in a region where all three issues are salient.
As of late 2024, the race is in its early formative stage following Representative Derek Kilmer's announcement that he will not seek re-election. Democrat Hillary Franz, the state's Public Lands Commissioner, is the highest-profile declared candidate, having launched her campaign in May 2024. Republican Doug Dightman, a former Kitsap County Commissioner, entered the race in June 2024. Other potential candidates from both parties are considering runs, with filing deadlines not until May 2026. The national campaign committees for both parties, the DCCC and NRCC, have listed WA-06 as a target district. No major primary challenges have yet emerged, and fundraising figures for the 2026 cycle will not be publicly reported until 2025. The district boundaries for the 2026 election are set, as Washington completed its redistricting process after the 2020 Census.
The district includes all of Clallam, Jefferson, and Grays Harbor counties, most of Kitsap and Mason counties, and parts of Pierce and Tacoma. Major cities include Tacoma (portion), Bremerton, Olympia (portion), Aberdeen, and Port Angeles.
The current representative is Democrat Derek Kilmer, who has held the seat since January 2013. He announced in 2024 that he would not seek re-election in 2026, making it an open seat.
The district voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (55.7%) and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (51.8%). It voted for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. Before 2008, it voted for Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2026. Washington state uses a top-two primary system, where all candidates appear on the same primary ballot in August 2026, and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party.
Key issues include defense and veterans affairs due to major military bases, environmental protection of the Puget Sound and Olympic Peninsula, management of federal forests, maritime and fishing industry concerns, and economic development in both urban and rural areas.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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