This contract is a Polymarket event titled "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?" It asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei, identified in the contract as Supreme Leader of Iran, will appear in authentic photographs or video within a set timeframe [1]. The event contains two saved markets. One asks whether he will be seen in public by October 31, with a listed end time of November 1, 2026 at 03:59 UTC. The other asks the same question by December 31, with a listed end time of January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC [1]. Both were reported as active at the time of the provider observation. The resolution rules are narrow. A Yes outcome requires that Mojtaba Khamenei be photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date, and that the images or video be taken and released within that window [1]. The rules say the material must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, and posthumous releases do not qualify [1]. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, count [1]. The contract names the image or video itself, together with a consensus of credible reporting on whether the material is real, as the resolution source [1]. Because the contract depends on whether new material is released in the window, a public appearance that is only described in reporting, or older footage shown again, would not by itself satisfy the rules as written [1]. Readers should check the full rules on the provider page before drawing conclusions about how a particular piece of material would be treated.

Historical Context

The article on the state funeral of Ali Khamenei reports that the funeral took place from 3 to 9 July 2026, with ceremonies in Tehran and Qom, separate events in Iraq, and burial at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, following his assassination in a US-Israeli attack on 28 February 2026 [3]. Separately, a Wikipedia article describes the 2025 to 2026 Iranian protests as nationwide demonstrations against the government that began on 28 December 2025 amid an economic crisis, with a sharp depreciation of the rial, rising inflation, and shortages [2]. That article says the protests spread to more than 200 cities and that the crackdown that followed resulted in many deaths [2]. These sources are background only. They do not establish how the situation stands today, and they are not evidence about any particular public appearance.

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