Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

National Book Award for Poetry

Total Volume

$5.80K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

National Book Award for Poetry

Vol

$5.80K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.80K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.80K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	50%
Will Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	50%
Will Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	50%
Will Hide win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	47%
Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	45%
Will Tree of Knowledge win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	44%
Will Horses win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	28%
Will The Bronze Arms win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	25%
Will JOAN win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	22%
Will We win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	21%
Will Promise/Threat win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$5.80K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 | Poetry If X wins the award for Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** National Book Award for Poetry
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 | Poetry

If X wins the award for Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If 'We' wins the award for Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occur"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will We win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $385
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tree of Knowledge win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $215
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $215
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $215
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Promise/Threat win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $687
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will JOAN win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $385
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Horses win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $415
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Hide win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $253
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $215
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will The Bronze Arms win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $414
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

National Book Award for Poetry

Volume$5.80K

Markets11

11 of 11

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Tie' wins the award for Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occu

KALSHI

Will Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation' wins the award for Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market w

KALSHI

Will Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza' wins the award for Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market

KALSHI

Will Hide win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Hide win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Hide' wins the award for Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occ

KALSHI

Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Bramble' wins the award for Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event

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35¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/5FHBdB" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="National Book Award for Poetry"></iframe>

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Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

National Book Award for Poetry

Markets (11)

Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Hide win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Hide win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

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Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

National Book Award for Poetry

Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Hide win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Hide win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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