Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Name: Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$32.92K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

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Polymarket

markets · $32.92K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $32.92K

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	Poly	63%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

63%

Top Probability

$32.92K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "US" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before Israel does. If Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before the United States does, this market will resolve to "Israel". If no qualifying strike occurs by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, strikes occur simultaneously, there is ambiguity about the order of strikes,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (74 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "US" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before Israel does.

If Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before the United States does, this market will resolve to "Israel". 

If no qualifying strike occurs by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, strikes occur simultaneously, there is ambiguity about the order of strikes,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "US" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before Israel does.

If Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.2K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $32.9K
  DATA: [US: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [Israel: 37.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

73d 12h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

63¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/5FqPZk" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will US or Israel strike Iran first?"></iframe>

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Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

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Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)